Risk prediction of wound bacterial infection in burn patients based on machine learning
Objective To screen risk factors for wound bacterial infection in burn patients using ma-chine learning and establish a risk prediction model for wound bacterial infection in burn patients after admis-sion,to provid new insights for the prevention and treatment of wound bacterial infection in burn patients after admission.Methods A total of 139 patients admitted to the Burn Department of the Northern District of Suzhou Hospital Affiliated to Nanjing Medical University due to burns from January 1,2023 to August 1,2023 were enrolled and divided into group Ⅰ(77 patients with negative culture results)and group 11(62 patients with positive culture results)based on wound bacterial culture results.Forty-four indicators including age,gender,burn area(BA),and 17 blood routine indicators,7 blood coagulation indicators,and 17 biochemical in-dicators tested upon admission were collected from both groups.The Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator(LASSO)regression technique was used to screen the number of variables as risk factors,and a risk prediction nomogram model was constructed using the logistic regression method.Internal random grouping(training set 0.8:test set 0.2)was performed,and their receiver operating characteristic curves were plotted respectively to calculate the area under the curve for evaluating the prediction effect.The final performance validation of the model was conducted by plotting a calibration curve.Results Through LASSO regression technique analysis,eight factors were screened,including gender(intercept:0.30),BA(intercept:1.60),white blood cell count(intercept:0.34),alkaline phosphatase(intercept:0.28),triglycerides(intercept:-0.71),ba-sophil percentage(intercept:1.05),albumin(intercept:-1.62),and albumin/globulin(intercept:0.05),which could assess the risk of wound bacterial infection in burn patients.A nomogram was constructed based on these variables,demonstrating good consistency and accuracy.Conclusion There is a nonlinear and positive correlation between gender,BA and six blood test indicators and wound bacterial infection in burn patients.The established prediction model has certain predictive value for the risk of wound bacterial infection in burn patients.
万方数据
维普
