Construction of a Predictive Model for Progression of HBV-related Pre-acute-on-chronic Pre-liver Failure
Objectives To explore the predictive indicators and establishment of a predictive model for the progres-sion of HBV-related Pre-acute-on-chronic Liver Failure(HBV-Pre-ACLF)progression.Methods A retrospective case study was conducted to screen 102 patients who met the inclusion criteria in our hospital from January 2018 to June 2022.The clinical indicators of the patients were analyzed with the progression to ACLF as the observation end point.Through univariate and multivariate analyses,the independent risk factors of HBV-Pre-ACLF progression were found and the predictive model was established.Results At the baseline level,clinical indicators ALB,blood sodium,MELD,and MELD-sodium scores,and whether alprostadil was combined with treatment were independent risk factors for the progression of HBV-Pre-ACLF(P＜0.05).According to the results of binary logistic regression analysis,the prediction model Logit(P)=34.75-0.34*ALB-0.16* serum sodium-1.26*alprostadil therapy(1 for combi-nation with alprostadil therapy,0 for non-combination therapy)was established.Conclusions The scoring system of ALB,blood sodium,FIB,MELD and MELD-sodium at the baseline of HBV-Pre-ACLF has certain predictive value for the disease progression,and early treatment combined with alprostadil can curb the progress of HBV-Pre-ACLF to some extent.
Hepatitis B virusPre-acute-on-chronic liver failurePredictive indicatorsModel
万方数据
维普
