深圳市龙岗区新发现≥50岁患者HIV感染/AIDS流行趋势特征和定量预测
Epidemiological trend characteristics and quantitative prediction of newly discovered HIV/AIDS cases aged ≥50 years in Longgang District Shenzhen
孙春云 1李刚 1陈小燕 1魏伟泉2
作者信息
- 1. 深圳市龙岗区疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制科,广东深圳 518172
- 2. 深圳市龙岗区龙城公共卫生服务中心传染病预防控制科,广东 深圳 518172
- 折叠
摘要
目的 掌握≥50岁患者的HIV感染/AIDS流行趋势特征,并进行定量预测,为指导疫情防控和风险评估提供科学依据.方法 用描述流行病学方法分析深圳市龙岗区2018-2023年新发现≥50岁患者HIV感染/AIDS的趋势特征,用缓冲算子序列建立灰色均值GM(1,1)模型进行趋势判定和定量预测.结果 2018-2023年深圳市龙岗区新发现≥50岁HIV感染/ADIS患者271例,年均(45±11)例;男/女性别比3.44∶1,50～59岁占62.37％,职业分布较广,以家务及待业(37.27％)和商业服务(15.87％)较多,已婚或有配偶占53.51％,初中以下文化占62.36％,外市户籍占81.18％;感染途径以异性传播(71.22％)为主,非婚异性性接触史高(63.10％);发现途径以医疗机构检测发现(76.38％)为主.各年≥50岁HIV感染/ADIS患者在人群特征、感染途径和检测样本来源等分布上未呈现趋势变化(P＞0.05);在当年新发现HIV感染/ADIS患者构成比呈现出增长趋势(P＜0.05).建立的弱化算子GM(1,1)灰色模型优秀,平均相对误差＜2.0％,精度＞98.0％,发展系数为0.05,患者数呈增长趋势,预测2024-2028年≥50岁患者年发现数将可能从62例增长至75例.结论 深圳市龙岗区≥50岁HIV感染/ADIS患者在构成占比和患者数上均呈增长趋势,应重点关注≥50岁HIV感染/ADIS患者,针对老年人群加强宣传教育、制定和完善AIDS综合干预和防治体系.灰色GM(1,1)预测模型可用于≥50岁人群中HIV感染/AIDS流行趋势判定和定量预测,对风险定量评估和疫情防控具有较好的指导意义.
Abstract
Objective To explore the epidemic trend characteristics of HIV/AIDS patients ≥50 years old,and to make quantitative predictions to provide scientific reference data for prevention and control,as well as for risk assessment.Method Descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze the epidemic trend of newly discovered HIV/AIDS cases aged ≥50 years in Longgang District of Shenzhen from 2018 to 2023,and the grey mean GM(1,1)model was established by buffer operator sequence to determine trend and quantitatively predict.Result From 2018 to 2023,271 new HIV/ADIS cases aged ≥50 years were found in Longgang District,with an average annual rate of(45+11)cases.The male/female sex ratio was 3.44∶1,62.37％were aged 50 to 59,and the occupations were widely distributed,including housework and unemployment(37.27％)and commercial services(15.87％),53.51％were married or with spouses,62.36％had a junior high school education or less,and 81.18％were registered outside the city.Heterosexual transmission(71.22％)was the main route of infection in elderly patients,and non-marital heterosexual contact history was high(63.10％).The main way of detection was found in medical institutions(76.38％).There was no trend in the distribution of HIV/ADIS cases aged ≥50 years in terms of population characteristics,infection routes and sample sources(P＞0.05).The proportion of newly discovered cases showed an increasing trend(P＜0.005).The established weakening operator GM(1,1)gray model is excellent,with an average relative error of＜2.0％,accuracy＞98.0％and development coefficient of 0.05.The number of cases shows an increasing trend,and it is predicted that the annual number of cases aged ≥50 years old may increase from 62 to 75 in 2024-2028.Conclusion The proportion and number of HIV/ADIS cases aged ≥50 in Longgang District showed an increasing trend.Attention should be paid to the epidemic of HIV/ADIS cases aged≥50 years,and publicity and education should be strengthened to formulate and improve the AIDS prevention and treatment system for the elderly population.The grey GM(1,1)prediction model can be used to determine the epidemic trend and quantitatively predict of HIV/AIDS aged ≥50 years,and has a good guiding significance for the quantitative risk assessment and prevention and control of HIV/AIDS epidemic.
关键词
人体免疫缺陷病毒感染/艾滋病/流行特征/≥50岁患者/灰色预测Key words
Human immunodeficiency virus infected/acquired immune deficiency syndrome/Epidemic characteristics/≥50 years old cases/Grey prediction引用本文复制引用
基金项目
深圳市龙岗区科技创新局科研项目(LGWJ2021-129)
深圳市龙岗区科技创新局科研项目(LGKCYLWS2023033)
出版年
2024
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据