中国经济是否跨越了"中等收入陷阱"?——基于1988-2018年城镇劳动力教育回报率的分析
Has China's Economy Crossed the"Middle-income Trap"?Analysis on Returns to Education of China Urban Labor Forces(1988-2018)
范愫 1夏庆杰 1李实2
作者信息
- 1. 北京大学经济学院
- 2. 浙江大学公共管理学院
- 折叠
摘要
本文使用跨度三十年(1988-2018)的中国家庭收入调查(CHIP)城镇抽样调查数据,综合运用线性回归模型、半参数回归模型和无条件分位数回归(UQR)等计量方法,考察了改革开放以来中国教育回报率的变化及其与收入结构、地域产业结构之间的关系.研究结果表明,我国城镇劳动力教育回报率与收入的关系自1988年以来发生了逆转,高收入群体的教育回报率逐步赶超中低收入群体,且这一趋势与各经济地区产业发展状况呈现出时空同步,反映出我国对劳动力素质需求增加、城镇经济结构已经从劳动密集型为主升级到技术和资本密集型为主,进而说明中国经济已经跨越了"中等收入陷阱".
Abstract
Using data from the China Household Income Project(CHIP)urban survey data from 1988 to 2018),this paper examines the changes in the returns to education in China since the reform and opening up and its relationship with income structure and regional industrial structure using multiple econometric strategies including linear regression,semi-parametric regression models,and unconditional quantile regression(UQR)decomposition measures.The results show that the relationship between returns to education and income of China's urban labor force has been reversed since 1988,with the returns to education of the high-income group gradually catching up with those of the low-and middle-income groups,and this trend shows a spatial and temporal synchronization with the industrial development of each economic region,reflecting that China's demand for labor quality has increased and the economic structure of urban areas has been upgraded from labor-intensive to technology-intensive and capital-intensive.This reflects that China's demand for labor quality has increased and the structure of urban economy has been upgraded from labor-intensive to technology-intensive and capital-intensive,thus indicating that China's economy has crossed the"middle-income trap".
关键词
教育回报率/中等收入陷阱/城镇劳动力市场/产业升级Key words
Return to Education/Middle-income Trap/Urban Labor Market/Industrial Upgrading引用本文复制引用
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据