中国家庭消费韧性:内涵、测度及事实
The Consumption Resilience of Chinese Households:Connotation,Measurement and Facts
傅联英 1蔡煜 1陈琳琳2
作者信息
- 1. 华侨大学经济与金融学院
- 2. 华侨大学董事会/校友办公室
- 折叠
摘要
百年未有之大变局与新发展格局历史性交汇,韧性特征已然成为衡量消费高质量发展的全新标度.本文基于暴露度、纾缓力和适应力三重维度,构建"一度两力"的家庭消费韧性衡量体系,运用熵权TOPSIS法测度中国各地区的家庭消费韧性,并借助自然断裂法、Dagum基尼系数分解法与Moran指数对家庭消费韧性的时序演进和空间分化进行组群分析.结果显示:(1)省际层面,家庭消费韧性整体水平偏低,且呈现出中部塌陷、南北凸起的"哑铃型"空间分布特征;城际层面,家庭消费韧性显现出中间较高、两头相当的"橡木桶型"空间分布态势.家庭消费韧性展现出程度各异的地区不平衡不充分问题,但城际层面的家庭消费韧性差距低于省际层面的家庭消费韧性差距.(2)时序层面,八大经济区家庭消费韧性演变表现出先平缓下降后快速上升的"镰刀型"轨迹,总体差异主要来源于区域间差距,但区域间家庭消费韧性差距动态地趋于收敛.研究结论丰富了消费高质量发展的特征维度及其时空分异事实,为测度消费韧性提供了理论基准和技术支撑.
Abstract
With the historic convergence of the unprecedented changes and the new development pattern,the resilience characteristic has become a brand-new scale to measure the high-quality development of consumption.Based on the three dimensions of exposure,relief and adaptability,this paper develops a"One Degree,Two Forces"measurement system for household consumption resilience,utilizes the entropy-weighted TOPSIS method to measure the resilience of household consumption in various regions of China,and analyzes the temporal evolution and spatial differentiation of the resilience of household consumption with the help of the natural fracture method,the Dagum Gini coefficient decomposition method,and the Moran's I.The results show that:(1)At the inter-provincial level,the overall level of household consumption resilience is on the low side,and presents a"Dumbbell-type"spatial distribution characteristic of collapse in the center and bulge in the north and south;At the inter-city level,the resilience of household consumption shows a"Oak-barrel-type"spatial distribution characteristic of middle high and both ends comparable.Household consumption resilience shows varying degrees of inter-regional imbalance and insufficiency,but the gap in household consumption resilience at the intercity level is lower than that at the inter-provincial level.(2)At the time-series level,the evolution of household consumption resilience in the eight economic regions shows a"Sickle-shaped"trajectory of decline followed by an upward trend,with the overall differences mainly stemming from inter-regional disparities,but the household consumption resilience gap among regions is dynamically converging.The findings of the study have enriched the characteristic dimensions of high-quality development of consumption and its spatial and temporal differentiation,and provided theoretical benchmarks and technical support for measuring the resilience of consumption.
关键词
家庭消费韧性/家庭消费脆弱性/消费差距/消费升级/消费高质量发展Key words
Household Consumption Resilience/Household Consumption Vulnerability/Consumption Gap/Consumption Upgrading/Consumption Quality Development引用本文复制引用
基金项目
国家社会科学基金重点项目(22AJY016)
教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(20YJA790011)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据