初始劳动力市场条件对家庭消费的影响
The Impact of Initial Labor Market Conditions on Household Consumption
高天一 1邓金锋 1罗楚亮1
作者信息
摘要
文章采用1986-2009年城镇住户调查(UHS)微观数据,基于家庭早期面临的劳动力市场条件,实证分析初始劳动力市场条件对家庭消费行为的影响.研究发现,不利初始劳动力市场条件会显著降低家庭的消费水平,并影响家庭的消费结构:家庭生存型消费占比上升、发展型消费占比下降.该结论在改变被解释变量、替换核心解释变量、考虑其他干扰因素、更换样本等条件下依旧稳健.机制分析表明,不利初始劳动力市场条件主要通过降低家庭可支配收入从而降低家庭消费水平.家庭消费的跨期平滑能力受到不利初始劳动力市场条件的正向影响,为家庭风险态度的改变提供了证据支持.异质性分析结果显示,不利初始劳动力市场条件对家庭消费的负效应在女性户主所在家庭更显著;初始劳动力市场条件对家庭消费的负向影响在短期内对受冲击更大的家庭更显著,长期来看对受冲击程度不同的家庭的消费水平均存在显著负效应.研究结论为认识中国家庭消费行为提供新视角,为政府激发居民消费潜力提供一定的政策启示.
Abstract
Using the microdata of Urban Household Survey(UHS)from 1986 to 2009,this paper empirically analyzes the impact of initial labor market conditions on household consumption behavior based on the labor market conditions faced by households in the early stage.The results show that the adverse initial labor market conditions will significantly reduce the level of household consumption and affect the consumption structure of households,with the proportion of household subsistence consumption showing an upward trend and the proportion of household development consumption showing a downward trend.This conclusion is still robust under the conditions of changing the dependent variable,replacing the core independent variable,considering other interfering factors and changing the sample.The potential mechanism analysis shows that adverse initial labor market conditions mainly reduce household consumption by reducing household disposable income.The intertemporal smoothing power of household consumption is positively affected by adverse initial labor market conditions.It provides evidence supporting for the change of household risk attitude Heterogeneity analysis shows that the negative effect of adverse initial labor market conditions on household consumption is more significant in female-headed households.The negative impact of initial labor market conditions on household consumption is more significant in the short term for households with greater shocks.In the long run,there are significant negative effects on the consumption level of households with different impact degrees.The above conclusions can provide a new perspective for understanding the consumption behavior of Chinese households,and supply some policy implications to the government to stimulate residents'consumption potential.
关键词
初始劳动力市场条件/消费水平/消费结构/消费保险/风险偏好Key words
Initial Labor Market Conditions/Consumption Level/Consumption Structure/Consumer Insurance/Risk Attitude引用本文复制引用
基金项目
北京市社会科学基金重点项目(22JJA001)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据