非农就业对农村家庭消费的影响
The Impact of Non-agricultural Employment on Rural Household Consumption
范丹 1曹楠楠1
作者信息
摘要
在消费成为扩大内需重要动力的经济环境、农村家庭具有巨大消费潜力的现实背景下,研究影响农村家庭消费的因素具有重要理论和现实意义.本文基于2019年中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)数据,运用固定效应模型和处理效应模型等方法,实证研究了非农就业对农村家庭消费的影响.结果表明:(1)非农就业能有效促进农村家庭释放消费潜力,且能推动农村家庭消费结构优化升级.该结论在进行一系列的内生性处理和稳健性检验后仍然成立.(2)收入、失业、医疗、健康等方面的未来预期风险和自然灾害、人为灾害、重大疾病、经济恶化等方面的事故经历,均表明不确定性风险会弱化非农就业对农村家庭消费的正向影响.(3)异质性分析发现,非农就业能够缩小农村家庭消费、收入、社会网络、技能阶层的消费差距.本文的研究结论为推动农村劳动力有序非农就业,充分释放农村家庭消费潜力,进而实现农村家庭消费结构优化升级,具有一定政策启示.
Abstract
In the economic environment where consumption has become an important driving force for expanding domestic demand,and against the backdrop of the enormous consumption potential of rural households,studying the factors that affect rural household consumption has important theoretical and practical significance.This article is based on the 2019 China Household Finance Survey(CHFS)data and uses methods such as fixed effects model and processing effects model to empirically study the impact of non-agricultural employment on rural household consumption.The results indicate that:(1)Non-agricultural employment can effectively promote rural households to unleash their consumption potential,and can also promote the optimization and upgrading of rural household consumption structure.This conclusion still holds after a series of endogeneity processing and robustness tests.(2)The future expected risks in areas such as income,unemployment,healthcare,and accidents related to natural disasters,man-made disasters,major illnesses,and economic deterioration all indicate that uncertainty risks will weaken the positive impact of non-agricultural employment on rural household consumption.(3)Heterogeneity analysis found that non-agricultural employment can narrow the consumption gap among different consumption,income,social networks,and skill groups in rural areas.The research conclusion of this article has certain policy implications for promoting orderly non-agricultural employment of rural labor,fully unleashing the consumption potential of rural households,and achieving the optimization and upgrading of rural household consumption structure.
关键词
非农就业/农村家庭消费/不确定性风险/未来预期风险/事故经历Key words
Non-agricultural Employment/Rural Household Consumption/Uncertainty Risk/Future Expected Risks/Accident Experience引用本文复制引用
基金项目
国家自然科学基金面上项目(71873107)
四川省社会科学基金重点研究基地一般项目(2023120112)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据