首页|基于AnyLogic仿真的恐慌情景行人疏散研究

基于AnyLogic仿真的恐慌情景行人疏散研究

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为了反映恐慌情景下行人疏散的变化规律,基于Anylogic软件进行仿真分析.通过引入情绪因子和信息因子,量化恐慌传播系数和信息传播系数,建立群体恐慌动力学模型,运用蒙特卡洛等方法进行群体心理的量化分析,划分恐慌程度等级为Ⅰ级、Ⅱ级、Ⅲ级、Ⅳ级、Ⅴ级.运用该模型分析不同密度、不同恐慌等级下的恐慌人员疏散规律.研究结果表明:低密度情景下恐慌对疏散效率的影响较低,中、高密度情景下,适度恐慌可以降低疏散时间,超出临界范围会导致疏散的延缓.场景模拟可以看出,适度恐慌下人员疏散迅速有序,相反,过度恐慌下人员疏散缓慢混乱.
Research on pedestrian evacuation in panic scenarios based on AnyLogic simulation
In order to reflect the changing pattern of pedestrian evacuation in panic scenarios,simulation analysis was conducted based on the AnyLogic software.By introducing emotional fac-tors and information factors,quantifying panic transmission coeffi-cients and information transmission coefficients,establishing a group panic dynamics model,and using Monte Carlo methods for quantitative analysis of group psychology,the panic level is di-vided into five levels:Level I,Level II,Level III,Level IV,and Level V.This model is used to analyze the evacuation pattern of panic-stricken people under different densities and panic levels.The results show that panic has a low impact on evacuation effi-ciency under low-density scenarios,and moderate panic can re-duce evacuation time under medium-and high-density scenarios.Exceeding the critical range can lead to a delay in evacuation.The scene simulation shows that under moderate panic,the evacuation of people is rapid and orderly,while under excessive panic,the evacuation of people is slow and chaotic.

pedestrian evacuationdynamic modelsAnyLogic simulationpanic psychologyevacuation efficiency

李华、范帅超、张茹梦

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西安建筑科技大学 资源工程学院,陕西 西安 710055

行人疏散 动力学模型 AnyLogic仿真 恐慌心理 疏散效率

2024

消防科学与技术
中国消防协会

消防科学与技术

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.846
ISSN:1009-0029
年,卷(期):2024.43(3)
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