危险化学品道路运输事故复杂性机理研究综述
A review on the complexity mechanism of road transport accidents of hazardous chemicals
骆成 1韩东 2蒋灶 1李聪 1孙戬 1路亚妮3
作者信息
- 1. 西华大学 应急管理学院,四川 成都 610039
- 2. 广东省华工检测鉴定有限公司,广东 广州 511500
- 3. 湖北工程学院 土木工程学院,湖北 孝感 432000
- 折叠
摘要
为探寻危险化学品道路运输事故复杂性机理的研究现状,基于事故风险特征提出了一种新的文献分类方法.该方法分别从复杂性与复杂系统特征、事故致因理论、事故风险演化过程、事故风险耦合后果 4个方面对既有的文献进行综合评述.分析认为,近年来危险化学品道路运输事故相关理论和方法的研究发展迅速,其中事故致因理论研究最为成熟,事故风险演化和事故风险耦合研究正逐步成为关注的重点;既有研究大多集中在系统的宏观层面,微观层面研究较少,且风险和能量如何在不同层面进行传递和转化尚未形成完整的理论,也未揭示系统内部风险因子相互作用及演化发展的过程和规律;基于新的分类方法发现,大多数研究采用单目标求解或多目标优化模型,未能充分考虑运输过程动态风险特征和时变效应,基于事故后果和环境污染风险的事故不确定性分析可能是未来的研究热点.
Abstract
To explore the research status of the complexity mecha-nism of hazardous chemical road transportation accidents,a new literature classification method based on accident risk characteris-tics is proposed.This method comprehensively evaluates existing literature from four aspects:complexity and complex system char-acteristics,accident causation theory,accident risk evolution pro-cess,and accident risk coupling consequences.The analysis show that in the past two decades,research related has developed rap-idly,with the most mature research on accident causation theory.The evolution of accident risk and the coupling of accident risk are gradually becoming the focus of scholars' attention;Most research focused on the macro level,with relatively little research on the micro level.A complete theory hasn't been formed on how risks and energy are transmitted and transformed at different levels,nor has the process and laws of the interaction and evolution of in-ternal risk factors within the system been revealed;Based on new classification methods,it has been found that most studies use single objective solving or multi-objective optimization models,which fail to fully consider the dynamic risk characteristics and time-varying effects of transportation processes.Accident uncer-tainty analysis based on accident consequences and environmental pollution risks may be a future hotspot.
关键词
危险化学品/道路运输/事故复杂性/致因理论/风险演化/风险耦合Key words
hazardous chemicals/road transportation/accident complexity/causal theory/risk evolution/risk coupling引用本文复制引用
基金项目
国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(41907259)
四川省哲学社会科学重点实验室"智慧应急管理重点实验室"开放课题(2023ZHYJGL-10)
西华大学人才引进项目(Z242131)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据