心肺血管病杂志2024,Vol.43Issue(1) :30-34.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1007-5062.2024.01.006

中危肺栓塞患者30天内不良预后的预测因素分析

Predictors of poor 30-day outcomes in patients with intermediate-risk pulmonary embolism

和雪改 李双萍 毛毅敏 万钧
心肺血管病杂志2024,Vol.43Issue(1) :30-34.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1007-5062.2024.01.006

中危肺栓塞患者30天内不良预后的预测因素分析

Predictors of poor 30-day outcomes in patients with intermediate-risk pulmonary embolism

和雪改 1李双萍 1毛毅敏 1万钧2
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作者信息

  • 1. 471003 河南科技大学第一附属医院 呼吸与危重症医学科
  • 2. 首都医科大学附属北京安贞医院-北京市心肺血管疾病研究所 呼吸与危重症医学科
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摘要

目的:探讨中危肺栓塞早期不良结局的危险因素及可能的预测因素.方法:连续性纳入2016年1月至2021年12月,在我院住院的209例中危肺栓塞患者,按照30d是否存在不良预后分为短期不良结局组和存活组,应用多因素Logistic分析中危肺栓塞早期不良结局的危险因素;应用ROC曲线分析危险因素联合简化版肺栓塞严重程度评分(simplified pulmonary embolism severity index,sPESI)对中危肺栓塞患者早期不良结局的预测价值.结果:多因素Logistic回归分析得出sPESI评分、NLR为预测中危肺栓塞早期不良结局的危险因素(P<0.05).将NLR ≥ 3.79作为新的指标,计为1分,纳入NLR的sPESI评分预测中危肺栓塞早期不良结局预测价值的ROC曲线下面积为0.968(95% CI:0.932~0.988),当评分≥2分时,灵敏度为100%,特异度为80.61%.结论:纳入NLR的sPESI评分对中危肺栓塞患者早期不良结局具有一定的预测价值.

Abstract

Objective:To investigate the risk factors and prediction system for adverse outcomes of moderate risk pulmonary embolism.Methods:A total of 209 patients with moderate risk pulmonary embolism who were hospitalized from January 2016 to December 2021 were continuously enrolled and divided into short-term adverse outcomes group and survival group according to whether they died within 30 days.Multivariate Logistic analysis was used to analyze the risk factors of adverse outcomes of moderate risk pulmonary embolism.ROC curve was used to evaluate the predictive value of risk factors combined with the simplified pulmonary embolism severity score(sPESI)for adverse outcomes in patients with moderate risk pulmonary embolism.Results:Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that sPESI score and NLR were independent risk factors for predicting adverse outcomes of moderate risk pulmonary embolism(P<0.05).NLR≥3.79 was taken as a new index,which was counted as 1 point.The area under ROC curve of sPESI score included in NLR for predicting poor prognosis of moderate risk pulmonary embolism was 0.968(95%CI:0.932-0.988).When the score was ≥ 2,the sensitivity and specificity were 100%and 80.61%.Conclusions:sPESI score including NLR may have certain predictive value for adverse outcomes in patients with moderate risk pulmonary embolism.

关键词

肺栓塞/简化版肺栓塞严重程度评分/中性粒细胞数目/淋巴细胞数目比值/死亡

Key words

Pulmonary embolism/Simplified pulmonary embolism severity/Ratio of neutrophil number to lymphocyte number/Death

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基金项目

河南省医学科技计划项目(LHGJ20200594)

出版年

2024
心肺血管病杂志
北京市心肺血管疾病研究所,首都医科大学附属北京安贞医院

心肺血管病杂志

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影响因子:1.214
ISSN:1007-5062
参考文献量15
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