Research into the Influence of Crude Oil Price on China-Central Asia Trade Cooperation
Since the"Silk Road Economic Belt"was officially proposed,China and the countries along the Belt and Road have carried out cooperation for many times in the spirit of political mutual trust,economic integration and cul-tural inclusion,and worked hard to achieve the goal of mutual benefit,win-win results and common development.Building a China-Central Asia community with a shared future is not only an important part of the Belt and Road Ini-tiative,but also an important way to achieve regional economic integration.It is also of great significance for promot-ing economic development,harmony and stability in Central Asia.As a strategic resource for China-Central Asia trade cooperation,the importance of crude oil is self-evident.Therefore,based on the MS-VAR model,this paper ex-plores the impact of international crude oil price fluctuations on China-Central Asia trade cooperation.This study shows that,the economic system can be divided into volatile periods(Zone 1)and stationary periods(Zone 2),and that crude oil prices are correlated with China-Central Asia trade cooperation and have significant'non-linear'charac-teristics.The study passes the robustness test and makes three policy proposals based on these findings:first,paying attention to the trend of international crude oil price fluctuations during volatile periods;second,diversifying cooper-ation models;and third,accelerating the construction of Shanghai crude oil spot and futures markets.
International Oil PricesChina-Central Asia Trade CooperationMS-VAR Model
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
