Risk Assessment of Collapse Disasters in the Southern Mountainous Areas of Ruoqiang County-an Information Quantity Model Based on Correlation Analysis
The southern mountainous area of Ruoqiang County,especially the Altun Mountain area,is an important gathering place for mineral veins in Ruoqiang County and even the entire Bazhou region.It is a bridgehead and strategic location for the new round of local strategic mining operations,which has made it an important area for the development of collapse disasters,seriously threatening the safety of local people's lives and property,and seriously hindering the de-velopment of the new round of strategic mining operations in this area.At present,due to the low level of research on geological hazards in the region,disaster prevention and reduction work is facing significant challenges.On the basis of the 2023 Central Finance funded project"Geological Disaster Risk Investigation and Evaluation Project in Ruoqiang County",this article analyzes the formation mechanism,disaster mode,and influencing factors of collapse disasters in the southern mountainous areas of Ruoqiang County,especially in the Altun Mountains area.Based on the Pearson corre-lation coefficient method,influential factors with strong correlation are selected,and the contribution comparison meth-od-Correlation Attribute Evaluation(CAE)is used to compare the contribution of the influencing factors.After deleting the two factors of slope curvature and landform type with lower contribution in the selected 10 factors,the remaining slope,aspect,terrain undulation,engineering geological rock group type,and NDVI are retained as basic factors.Road distance,water level,and NDVI are divided into basic factors.Eight factors such as system distance and fault distance are used as evaluation indicators,and grid units are selected as the basic evaluation units for information content calcula-tion.An information content model is constructed to evaluate and zoning the susceptibility of collapse disasters in the study area.The results show that:(1)the region is divided into high,medium,low,and non prone areas,with a total area of 391.48 km2 in high prone areas,accounting for 0.20％of the total area of Ruoqiang County and 35％of the area of the Altun Mountains,with a total of 95 landslides developed;The total area of Zhongyifa District is 16375.14 km2,account-ing for 8.26％of the total area of Ruoqiang County and 15％of the area of Altun Mountain Area,with a total of 11 land-slides developed;The total area of the low risk area is 31455.63 km2,accounting for 15.88％of the total area of Ruoq-iang County and 25％of the Altun Mountain area,with a total of 5 landslide disasters developed;The total area of non prone areas is 149906.50 km2,accounting for 75.66％of the total area of Ruoqiang County and 25％of the Altun Moun-tains.(2)The area below the ROC curve is 0.931,indicating good susceptibility prediction results.(3)Human engineer-ing activities(mainly mining and road construction,development,etc.)have the most obvious impact on the susceptibili-ty of collapse disasters.Areas less than 200 m away from roads are prone to geological disasters.Secondly,areas less than 100 m away from rivers are more prone to geological disasters.Areas with slopes of40-50° have a more obvious im-pact on the occurrence of geological disasters.Areas with larger terrain undulations are also high-risk areas for geologi-cal disasters.The types of engineering geological rock formations are hard to harder hard block like,harder to weak,and weak interlayered with sandstone,conglomerate,mudstone as the main clastic rock formations and hard to harder sheet like metamorphic rock formations with schist as the main metamorphic rock formations.Slope orientation and distance also have a certain impact on the occurrence of geological disasters.The impact of fault distance and NDVI on geologi-cal hazards in this work area is relatively small.The evaluation results are basically consistent with the field investiga-tion,and the results can provide theoretical basis for hazard assessment,risk assessment,and zoning within the area,and provide basic basis for local disaster prevention and reduction management,geological hazard risk control,national spa-tial planning and use control,new rural areas,and key project planning and construction services.
Mount AltynCollapseInfluencing factorsEvaluation indicatorsInformation volumeSusceptibility evaluationRisk control
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