Study on the Early Warning Mechanism of Local Government Debt Risk:Quantitative Identification and Simulation Prediction
After China's economy has shifted from high-speed growth to high-quality develop-ment,local government debt risk has gradually become prominent in regions with weak economic and financial foundation.It is imperative to establish a local debt risk early warning mechanism to quan-titatively identify warning signs and the source of risk and to simulate and predict risk trends.In this paper,grey correlation analysis,entropy method,cluster analysis and neural network model of ma-chine learning algorithm are used to construct the early warning and evaluation mechanism of local government debt risk.Then,using the hand-collated authoritative debt data to carry out quantita-tive identification and simulation prediction,this paper provides empirical evidence of the evolution trend,distribution characteristics and structural differences of local government debt risk.Based on the mechanism design and early warning analysis,this paper provides policy suggestions on closely monitoring the risk situation,adjusting and optimizing the debt structure,and promoting the overall supervision of debt in order to prevent and dissolve local government debt risk.
Local Government Debt RiskEarly Warning MechanismQuantitative IdentificationSimulation Prediction
万方数据
维普
