Prediction of Maximum Snow Depth Based on RBF Network in Severe Snow Disaster Area of Xinjiang
Xinjiang is one of the regions with the most abundant snow resources in China and also one of the regions with frequent snow disasters.The prediction of the maximum snow depth can provide reference and basic data for the early warning and prevention of snow disasters.This research is based on the established snow disaster loss index,this study determined the area of extreme snow disaster in Xinjiang.Further focusing on eight counties(cities)in the particularly heavy snow disaster areas,including Altay city,Fuhai county,Qinghe county,Tacheng city,Torri county,Shawan city,Nelk county and Yining county,the county RBF network model was established to predict the maximum snow depth from 2021 to 2050.The results show that the model can be used to predict Xinjiang's maximum snow depth,but the accuracy of prediction still needs to be improved.The maximum snow depth in Tacheng city and Nilek county will occur continuously from 2025 to 2029.The maximum snow depth value will appear in Qinghe county in 2039.Therefore,we should pay attention to the years and counties(cities)where snow disasters may occur and prepare for preventing snow disasters.
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据
维普
