首页|基于SPI的1961-2020年昌吉地区作物生长季气象干旱时空特征研究

基于SPI的1961-2020年昌吉地区作物生长季气象干旱时空特征研究

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基于昌吉地区1961-2020年的气象资料分析作物生长季标准化降水指数(SPI-7)的年际和年代际变化特征,揭示作物生长季干旱发生频率和强度.结果表明:1961-2020年昌吉地区作物生长季水分呈增加趋势,标准化降水指数以0.08/10 a的速率增加.气象干旱呈干—湿—干的年代际变化趋势,其中在1981年发生突变.干旱强度呈增加趋势,干旱发生面积呈弱减少趋势.东部地区是干旱高发区,但以轻旱为主;西部地区则是中旱、重旱和特旱高发区.昌吉地区的气象干旱存在6、9、16a的周期震荡,与历史灾情具有很好的吻合性.
Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Meteorological Drought Based on SPI during Crop Growing Season in Changji from 1961 to 2020
Based on meteorological data from 1961 to 2020 in Changji,the interannual and decadal variation characteristics of the standardized precipitation index(SPI-7)were analyzed,to reveal the frequency and intensity of drought occurrence during the crop growth season.The results show that,the water content showed an increasing trend from 1961 to 2020,with a standardized precipitation index increasing at a rate of 0.08/10 a.The meteorological drought showed an inter-decadal trend of dry-wet-dry,with a sudden change occurring in 1981.The intensity of drought was increasing,and the area of drought occurrence was weakly decreasing.There was a high incidence area of drought in the eastern region,and mainly characterized by mild drought.The western region was a high incidence area of moderate drought,severe drought,and extreme drought.The meteorological drought had periodic oscillations of 6,9,and 16 years in Changji,which was in good agreement with historical disasters.The research results provide a basis for crop drought monitoring and warning in Changji.

crop growth seasonmeteorological droughtstandardized precipitation index(SPI)drought intensitydrought frequency

阿帕尔·肉孜、阿吉古丽·沙依提、叶尔克江·霍依哈孜、黄秋霞

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昌吉州气象局,新疆 昌吉 831100

新疆气象学会,新疆 乌鲁木齐 830002

作物生长季 气象干旱 标准化降水指数(SPI) 干旱强度 干旱频率

中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项中国气象局创新发展专项国家自然科学基金面上项目昌吉州科技项目

IDM2021005IDM2021001CXFZ2021J044-03418750232020S03

2024

10.12057/j.issn.1002-0799.2024.02.021

沙漠与绿洲气象
新疆维吾尔自治区气象学会 中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所

沙漠与绿洲气象

CSTPCD
影响因子：1.007
ISSN：1002-0799
年,卷(期)：2024.18(2)
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