Assessment of CMIP6 in Simulating Extreme Precipitation over Central Asia
Based on observed precipitation data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration(NOAA)reanalysis and simulated precipitation data from 22 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)global climate models(GCMs),six extreme daily precipitation indices are selected to evaluate the performance of the CMIP6 GCMs over the central Asia from the perspectives of climatological mean and temporal variability.The results indicate that the spatial distribution of the climatological mean extreme precipitation shows an increasing trend from the southwest to the northeast,with high values occurring on the windward side of the southeast mountainous areas.The average errors of the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble(MME)for simple precipitation intensity index(SDII)and Consecutive dry days(CDD)are only-5.43%and 0.45%,but there are significant overestimations of the simulated annual total precipitation(PRCPTOT),annual count of days when precipitation 1mm(R1mm),maximum precipitation for 5 consecutive days(Rx5day)and consecutive wet days(CWD),while the corresponding errors are large over the southeastern part at higher altitudes.By comparison,the relative variability of the CMIP6 MME is relatively low,while the simulated CWD exhibits a relatively good performance,with an average error of-4.78%.R1mm is not well simulated,with an average error of-36.16%.Finally,among 22 CMIP6 GCMs,TaiESM1,EC-Earth3-Veg-LR,and GFDL-ESM are the best three models.
万方数据
维普
