Evaluation of Precipitation Simulation of Downscaled CMIP6 Models in Xinjiang
Based on the daily precipitation data from six CMIP6 models,a downscaling method was used to unify the resolution to 0.25°×0.25°,and five extreme precipitation indices were selected to evaluate the simulation effect of historical precipitation in Xinjiang from 1961 to 2014 from the perspectives of precipitation climate state,extreme,and seasonality.The results show that the downscaled models accurately capture the spatial distribution of precipitation in Xinjiang,with the highest annual precipitation error under 30 mm and a summer simulation correlation exceeding 0.8.The difference in the simulation effect of the model on precipitation during the spring and autumn seasons is small,with standard deviation ratios ranging from 1.00 to 1.25.and the ACCESS-CM2 has the best simulation effect.Although the ensemble mean simulated the increasing trend in observed precipitation,it underestimate interannual variability.The simulation results suggest that the precipitation turning point in Xinjiang in the 1980s may be related to human activities.In terms of extreme and seasonal precipitation,downscaled data has a good simulation performance for extreme and seasonal precipitation in Xinjiang.The ability of downscaled data to simulate seasonal precipitation(with an error of less than 0.001 compared to the observation mean)is better than that of original resolution data(with an error of more than 0.005 compared to the observation mean).
万方数据
维普
