The projected future warming and wetting trend in Xinjiang provides critical insights for regional climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts.Results obtained from global models participating in CMIP6(the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project)under three shared socio-economic pathways(SSPs)indicate the emergence of a"warming and humidification"trend in Xinjiang from 2021 to 2100.This trend is characterized by a general increase in temperature and precipitation levels.Specifically,under the SSP2-4.5 scenario,Xinjiang is projected to experience an approximate increase of 1.2℃ in annual mean temperature and a 6.8％rise in precipitation during the period of 2021 to 2040,relative to the baseline period of 1995 to 2014.Analysis of climate extremes suggests an increase in warm events,a decrease in cold events,and a heightened frequency of extreme heavy precipitation events,particularly under high-emission scenarios.This analysis aids in comprehending the spatial and temporal variations of disaster risks in Xinjiang and holds significant implications for future agricultural risk mitigation efforts.
关键词
新疆/暖湿化/极端指数/预估/CMIP6
Key words
Xinjiang/warming and wetting/climate extreme indices/projections/CMIP6
维普
万方数据