Study on the Probability of Human Error in Fracturing Operation Based on Combined Weighting
Fracturing operations are prone to accidents caused by human errors due to their high intensity and harsh operating environment.Analyzing the human reliability of fracturing sites is of great significance for improving the safety and efficiency of fracturing operations.Taking into consideration the influence of situational factors on the fracturing site,the combined weighting fuzzy CREAM method is proposed for human reliability analysis.The common performance conditions and CPC evaluation indicators for evaluating the human reliability of fracturing operations are established according to the environmental characteristics of fracturing operation scenarios.It contains 8 first-level common performance conditions and 36 second-level CPC evaluation indicators.Then,according to the impact of each CPC on the reliability of human performance,the variation coefficient method is used to determine the linear combination coefficient.The objective and subjective linear combination weighting of each CPC is carried out using the G1 and the entropy weight method.Finally,the method proposed in this paper is used to analyze the human reliability of a shale gas fracturing site in Sichuan.The results show that compared with the general fuzzy CREAM method,the combined weighted fuzzy CREAM method is more sensitive to the CPC evaluation data and the error probability is more accurate when at a low context level.With the reduction of the context level,the human error probability increases and the rate of change of the error probability accelerates,which is consistent with the actual working conditions on-site.The research results provide a reference for the analysis of human reliability and the quantification result optimization of human error probability at the fracturing site.
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