The Supply-Demand Relationship and Dynamic Allocation of Provincial Preschool Education Resources Under the Background of Low Birth Rate—Based on an Analysis of Population Prediction for the Central Province J
Under the background of low birth rate,it is of guiding significance to study the change of the supply-demand relationship of preschool education resources in provinces,optimizing the allocation of preschool education resources and achieving the high-quality and balanced development of preschool education.This study selected province J in central China as the research object,which is one sample of the type of low supply and high demand in the allocation of preschool education resources among provinces,and used PADIS-INT software to predict and analyze the changes in the number of preschool children in urban and rural areas under three different plans from 2023 to 2035,and investigated the current supply status of human and material resources in preschool education in province J.Furthermore,the supply and demand changes of human and material resources for preschool education in province J were predicted and analyzed under the situations of dynamic and static supply.The results showed that,the demand for preschool education resources will decrease significantly with the decreasing number of children in kindergartens.Meanwhile,there is a structural shortage in the current supply of human resources,and the imbalance of urban and rural allocation would occur in the future.Material resources have already reached a high level,and there would be a serious surplus in the future.The study suggests that local governments should make long-term plans for preschool education according to the dynamic changes in the relationship between resource supply and demand,being expected of limiting the increase,adjusting the stock,and reducing the surplus.Local governments are also encouraged to optimize the allocation of human resources from the perspectives of structure and quality,and to stabilize the rural teachers.Moreover,the increase of investment in kindergarten conditions shall be treated with distinct caution,and it is expected that various measures shall be taken to improve the efficiency of the usage of material resources.
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