The Impact of Price Fluctuation on the Industrial Chain Security of Strategic Key Mineral Resources——Take Iron,Manganese and Chromium as Examples
The security of the industrial chain for strategic key mineral resources is crucial for the long-term development plans of the nation,impacting national economy,people's livelihoods,and national security.Analyzing the transmission mechanism of price fluctuations on the industrial chain from the perspective of complex systems is of great importance for maintaining the secur-ity of our country's industrial chains and avoiding the accumulation of economic risks.This paper selects the Producer Price In-dex(PPI)of 30 industrial sectors related to the industrial chains of strategic key metal minerals such as iron,manganese,and chromium,representing the upstream,midstream,and downstream industry prices.It constructs a complex network model with lags of 1-4 periods and calculates the price fluctuation spillover index to measure the spillover effects among different indus-tries.The results show:(1)Price fluctuations can be transmitted among different segments of the industrial chain,and there is a dependency relationship between prices;(2)The spillover effect of price fluctuations varies among different segments of the industrial chain,with industry-specific impacts of price fluctuations that differ and accumulate over time,especially in the up-stream and midstream industries;(3)Price fluctuations significantly increase the cost control pressure on related enterprises in the industrial chain,particularly those in the midstream and downstream sectors.Based on these findings,the following recom-mendations are proposed:(1)A risk assessment,early warning mechanism,and risk management plan for the industrial chain of strategic key mineral resources should be established to enhance risk prevention and control capabilities.Particularly during significant industry price fluctuations,dynamic regulation of key industries should be implemented in the short and long term to further improve the safety of the industrial chain;(2)The capacity to ensure mineral resource supply should be enhanced.Addi-tionally,attention should be paid to the accumulation of costs in downstream industries,effectively addressing the impacts of price fluctuations on the security of the industrial chain at all stages,thereby further enhancing its stability;(3)International cooperation in mineral resources and research into the transmission paths and mechanisms of price fluctuations on the industrial chain should be deepened.This approach will reduce the risks posed by the concentration of mineral product supply sources and further enhance the competitiveness of the industrial chain.
price fluctuationstrategic key mineral resourcesindustrial chain securitycomplex network model
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