Central Bank Digital Currencies and Cash:Substitution or Coexist?
Under the new pattern of money in the digital era,this paper focuses on the rise of central bank digital currency(CBDC)and the future of cash,and systematically analyzes the economic effects of central bank digital currency based on the different degrees of substitution of cash by central bank digital currency.The results show that:first,the emergence of central bank digital currency is driven by the inherent demand in the digital era,which is the inevitable result of technological progress and the development of central banks,in which retail central bank digital currency will coexist with cash for a long time and have a profound impact on cash demand and economic and financial system;Second,there is uncertainty about the impact of retail central bank digital currencies on cash demand.Based on the theory of payment instrument selection,from the perspective of transaction convenience and holding income,retail central bank digital currency will have a substitution effect on cash,but considering the need for anonymity and inclusiveness,retail central bank digital currency is difficult to completely replace cash.Third,by not completely replacing cash and bank deposits,retail central bank digital currency will have an impact on the commercial banking system,financial stability,monetary policy,etc.,and under the condition of complete replacement,the feasibility and effectiveness of the"negative interest rate"policy needs to be re-evaluated.Based on this,countries should fully understand the possible advantages and disadvantages of central bank digital currency issuance,more accurately grasp the retail central bank digital currency and its relationship with cash,and continuously test and revise based on their own actual conditions in the pilot,so as to gradually form a more scientific and reasonable new pattern of currency.
万方数据
维普
