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复杂适应系统视角下的北极航线体系演化研究

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北极海冰的融化使北极航线问题的研究愈发受到各方关注,应看到北极航线的相关问题具有综合性,应从系统整体性角度研究问题.因此,本文提出北极航线体系,在此基础上划定了北极航线体系的地理范围.其次,从复杂适应系统视角下讨论了北极航线体系的演化过程.结果显示:(1)2007-2016年为北极航线聚集体形成阶段,此阶段国家是北极航线体系的主导,其他主体参与较少;(2)2017年至目前属于北极航线聚集体增长阶段,此阶段将持续很长一段时间,此阶段更多货主、船公司、港口、陆上运输线路主体加入到聚集体中,北极航线聚集体规模增长,数量增加;(3)未来将出现北极航线聚集体涌现阶段,此阶段各空间聚集体形成聚集体网络,使体系涌现多样化特质.
Research on the Evolution of Arctic Route System from the Perspective of Complex Adaptive System
The melting of Arctic sea ice has made the study of Arctic routes more and more con-cerned.It should be seen that the problems of the Arctic routes are comprehensive and need to be studied from the perspective of system integrity.This first proposed the concept of the Arctic route system and de-fined the spatial extent of the Arctic route system.Secondly,the complex adaptability of the Arctic route system is analyzed.Then,the evolution of the Arctic airline system is also discussed.The results are shown as follows.(1)2007-2016 is the formation phase of the Arctic route aggregates.At this stage,the country is the leader of the Arctic route system,and other entities have less participation.(2)The period from 2017 to the present is the growth phase of Arctic route aggregates,and this phase will contin-ue for a long time.At this stage,more cargo owners,shipping companies,ports,and land transportation line entities joined the aggregate,the size of the Arctic route aggregates increased and the number in-creased.(3)In the future,the emergence of the Arctic route aggregatesandthe formation of aggregate net-works of various spatial aggregateswill bring about diversified characteristics of the system.

Arctic route systemcomplex adaptive systemspace aggregationevolution

丁超君、李振福、陈雪

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大连海事大学交通运输工程学院,辽宁大连 116026

大连海事大学综合交通运输协同创新中心,辽宁大连 116026

北极航线体系 复杂适应系统 空间聚集体 演化

2024

系统科学学报
太原理工大学

系统科学学报

北大核心
影响因子:0.478
ISSN:1005-6408
年,卷(期):2024.32(2)