首页|基于系统动力学的充电基础设施利益相关者行为的演化博弈分析

基于系统动力学的充电基础设施利益相关者行为的演化博弈分析

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针对我国充电基础设施发展供需失衡日益加剧的现象,本文基于利益相关者视角,构建充电基础设施多主体行为的演化博弈模型,结合系统动力学仿真模拟,研究政府、运营商和消费者的演化稳定状态及各参数变量对主体策略行为选择的影响.仿真结果表明,整个系统趋向于稳定状态的关键在于运营商的策略选择,运营商积极运营是消费者购 买电动汽车的前提;建设运营补贴力度、政府监管成本和惩罚力度等因素是系统向稳定状态演化的主要驱动力.最后提出建议:政府应制定合理的补贴制度,完善监管制度,建立有效的惩罚机制,减缓对消费者购车补贴的退坡速度;运营商应与电网公司等寻求长期合作,拓宽盈利渠道,创新经营模式.研究成果可助力我国充电基础设施的快速发展.
An Evolutionary Game Analysis of Stakeholders'Behavior in Charging Infrastructure Based on System Dynamics
Charging infrastructure development imbalance between supply and demand is rising in China.Based on the perspective of stakeholders,the multi-agent evolutionary game model of charging in-frastructure is established,and numerical simulation for system dynamics is carried out to study the evolu-tionary stability strategy of the government,the operators and consumers,and the parameter variable's influence on the strategy of subject choice.The simulation results show that the active operation of opera-tors is the prerequisite for consumers to buy electric cars and the key to the stable state of the whole sys-tem lies in the operator's choice of strategy;the key factors to promote the evolution of the system to a stable equilibrium state are the intensity of construction operation subsidies,the cost of government super-vision and the severity of punishment to operators.Based on the simulation results and from the perspec-tive of supply side,this paper proposes that the government should formulate a reasonable subsidy system for infrastructure construction and operation,improve the supervision mechanism,establish an effective punishment mechanism,and slow down the regression speed of subsidies;operators should seek long-term cooperation with power grid companies to broaden profit channels and innovate business models.The re-search results can contribute to the rapid development of China's charging infrastructure.

charging infrastructurestakeholdersystem dynamicsevolutionary game

王伟、张靖轩、邵志国、汤洪霞

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青岛理工大学管理工程学院,山东青岛 266520

同济大学可持续发展与新型城镇化智库,上海 200092

充电基础设施 利益相关者 系统动力学 演化博弈

国家自然科学基金项目&&国家自然科学基金面上资助项目教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目

71874123717041627187116017YJC630184

2024

系统科学学报
太原理工大学

系统科学学报

北大核心
影响因子:0.478
ISSN:1005-6408
年,卷(期):2024.32(3)
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