The Impact of Government Bonds and Urban Construction Investment Bonds on Total Factor Productivity——An analytical study based on panel data of 289 cities
In recent years,despite continuous efforts to strengthen local government debt management,the total debt amount has re-mained stubbornly high.Consequently,optimizing the debt structure and mitigating the impact of government debt on high-quality de-velopment have become a crucial research topic.This study empirically analyzes the differences between and the mechanisms of the in-hibitory effects of government bonds and urban construction investment bonds on urban total factor productivity,using panel data from 289 Chinese cities between 2014 and 2022.Our findings reveal that government debt can lead to capital crowding out,misallocation and price effects,thereby inhibiting urban total factor productivity.However,these inhibitory effects primarily stem from urban construction investment bonds,whereas the impact of local government bonds is relatively mild.Therefore,while maintaining control over the total amount of local government debt,reducing the scale of urban construction investment bonds can help alleviate their constraints on total factor productivity and economic growth.This study offers valuable insights for China to develop a government debt management mecha-nism that aligns with high-quality development goals.
local government debturban total factor productivitycapital allocation efficiencyinnovation capability
万方数据
