Combination prediction of civil aircraft demand based on grey-neural network
The number of civil aircraft is an important symbol that reflects the transport capacity of civil aviation.By predicting the number of civil aircraft,the development trend of civil aviation industry in the future can be studied and analyed.This paper focuses on the model architecture and implementation methods of civil aircraft demand forecasting.Firstly,the number of civil aircraft and other key factors from 2013 to 2020 are taken as the original samples,then the data of 2021 is taken as the test samples.Finally,the future demand of civil aircraft is predicted by constructing the combined prediction model of gray-neural network.From the prediction results,the combination of grey model GM(1,1)and back propagation(BP)neural network model has good effect,and the combination model has high prediction accuracy,which fully proves the validity and feasibility of this model.Meanwhile,the prediction results will also have some reference significance for analyzing the future air transportation situation.