Aviation safety accident risk identification and evaluation based on directed networks
Aiming at the identification and evaluation problem of aviation safety accident risk,based on the aviation safety accidents in 2019,the causal relationship between risk events is analyzed with event tree analysis method,and a directed weighted aviation safety risk network model is established.The infectious disease model is introduced to model the network risk propagation with the spread of aviation safety risk,and the risk events are ranked to identify aviation safety risk.The aviation safety risk network risk index and the aviation safety accident occurrence risk index are proposed to evaluate the aviation system safety risk.The results show that managers should be concerned about poor visibility,aircraft system failures,insufficient equipment maintenance,illegal operations,fatigue,improper resource allocation,improper emergency response measures,insufficient flight readiness,and insufficient education and training.
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