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不确定需求下考虑预售合理性的鲁棒定价决策

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需求区间销售模式选择鲁棒定价预售合理性在可预知的需求信息为区间表达的情形下,研究销售模式选择与鲁棒定价决策问题,目的是分析预售的合理性和必要性.首先建立不进行预售时的鲁棒定价决策模型,根据逐层求解法得到鲁棒最优价格和实际销售利润.然后考虑通过预售获取确切需求信息并在现售阶段调整销售价格的两阶段鲁棒定价模型,根据预售所获得的实际利润评估预售的合理性.进一步地,基于风险中性准则对事先获取的需求区间进行分析,根据需求上下限和顾客购买偏好比例给出预售必要性的判别条件.最后设计了数值算例,考察预售的必要性如何随关键参数的变化而变化,以及不同销售模式下利润函数关于需求下限与实际需求之间差值的敏感性.
Robust Pricing Decisions Considering the Reasonability of Advance Selling Under an Uncertain Demand
This paper considers selling model choice and robust pricing decision for the case in which the demand information is an interval.The main purpose is to analyze the reasonability and the necessity of the advance selling.First,a robust pricing model for the spot-only selling is constructed.By layer-by-layer method,the robust optimal price and the profit of the spot-only selling are obtained.Second,we consider a two-period dynamic selling model.In the advance-selling period,a robust pricing strategy is proposed and then the precise demand information is achieved.In the spot-selling period,the real demand is used to adjust the price.The reasonability of the advance selling is assessed by the profit gained in the advance-selling period.Third,the demand interval is examined according to the risk-neutral criterion,and a judging condition for the necessity of advance selling is presented by considering the lower and upper bound of the demand and the consumers'purchase preference proportion.Finally,two numerical illustrations are designed,to investigate the change of the necessity of advance selling over crucial parameters and the sensitivity of the profit of each selling model with respect to the difference value between the lower bound of the demand and the real demand.

Demand intervalselling model choicerobust pricingthe reasonability of advance selling

楼振凯、王治莹、逄金辉

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安徽工业大学管理科学与工程学院,马鞍山 243032

北京理工大学计算机学院,北京 100081

需求区间 销售模式选择 鲁棒定价 预售合理性

科技创新2030-"新一代人工智能"重大项目国家自然科学基金面上项目安徽省自然科学基金项目安徽省高校科研项目

2018AAA0101000720740022308085QG2322023AH051120

2024

系统科学与数学
中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院

系统科学与数学

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.425
ISSN:1000-0577
年,卷(期):2024.44(7)
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