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不确定环境下考虑偏好调整效率的非加性BWM应急群决策方法

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针对应急群决策过程中决策属性间的互补和冗余效应,以及不一致偏好信息调整效率低下的问题,建立了基于模糊测度理论和最优最劣方法(BWM)的应急群决策模型.首先,鉴于应急决策环境的复杂性和决策者偏好的不确定性,利用灵活语言偏好关系刻画决策个体关于属性间的偏好强度,并基于最小偏好调整的思想建立最小信息损失模型,以产生群体关于属性的成对比较偏好向量.其次,为了保证应急决策的时效性与决策结果的合理性,提出考虑偏好调整效率的非加性BWM优化模型,该模型既能体现属性互补与冗余效应对应急方案排序的影响,又能实现BWM方法决策效率的提升.最后,以郑州特大暴雨突发应急事件为例验证了所提方法的可行性和有效性,为提升应急决策的决策效率与决策质量提供参考.
Emergency Group Decision Making Method Based on Non-Additive BWM Considering Preference Adjustment Efficiency in Uncertain Environments
To address the complementary and redundant effects of attributes and the inefficiency of adjusting inconsistent preference information in the emergency group decision-making problem,this paper constructs an emergency decision-making model based on fuzzy measure theory and the best-worst method(BWM).First,given the complexity of the emergency decision-making environment and the uncertainty of decision-makers,we use the flexible linguistic preference relation to depict the intensity of an individual's preference for attributes.We establish a minimum infor-mation loss model based on the idea of minimum preference adjustment to generate the collective pairwise comparison preference vectors of attributes.Second,to ensure the timeliness of emergency decision-making and the rationality of decision results,a nonadditive BWM optimization model considering preference adjustment efficiency is proposed.This model can not only improve the decision-making efficiency of the BWM but also reflect the impact of attribute complementary and redundant effects on the ranking of emergency alternatives.Finally,we take the extremely heavy rainstorm emergency event in Zhengzhou as an example to verify the feasibility and effective-ness of the proposed method.The results show that the proposed method can help improve the efficiency and quality of emergency decision-making,and is suitable for the complex and uncertain emergency decision-making environments.

Preference adjustment efficiencynonadditive BWMattribute interac-tionsflexible linguisticemergency group decision-making

肖婧梅、蔡玫

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南京信息工程大学管理工程学院,南京 210044

南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心,南京 210044

偏好调整效率 非加性BWM 属性交互 灵活语言 应急群决策

2024

系统科学与数学
中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院

系统科学与数学

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.425
ISSN:1000-0577
年,卷(期):2024.44(12)