Analysis of Factors Influencing the Recurrence of Juvenile Ganglion Cysts after Treatment
Objective To analyze the factors influencing the recurrence of juvenile ganglion cysts after treatment,build a risk prediction model and verify its efficacy.Methods A total of 161 patients with tendon sheath cysts admit-ted to Urumqi First People's Hospital from January 2020 to July 2021 were selected as the study objects.All patients were given symptomatic treatment such as anti-inflammatory and analgesia after admission,and surgical or conserva-tive treatment was selected according to the patients'conditions.Patients were followed up for 1 year after discharge.According to the follow-up results,patients were divided into relapse group(n=32)and control group(n=124).The sites and treatment methods of the two groups of patients were analyzed and compared,and the factors affecting the prognosis of the patients were analyzed using the multi-factor Logistics regression model.The R software was used to draw the prediction risk diagram of the recurrence of the tendon cyst,and the risk prediction score model of the recur-rence of the tendon cyst was established.Bootstrap sampling method was used to conduct 500 repeated self-sampling,and internal verification of the score model for predicting the recurrence risk of tendon sheath cyst was carried out.Ac-cording to the risk prediction score model,the correction curve was drawn to predict the recurrence of tendon sheath cyst,and the consistency of the two was evaluated.Results The age,the proportion of dorsal wrist ganglion cyst and the proportion of conservative treatment in the recurrence group were significantly higher than those in the control group,and the difference was statistically significant(all P<0.05);but there was no statistical significance in the size of the cyst between the two groups(P>0.05).Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that age(OR=1.888,P=0.002;95%CI:1.260-2.830),cyst site(OR=122.503,P<0.001;95%CI:13.462～1114.809)was an independent risk fac-tor affecting the prognosis of patients,and treatment mode was an independent protective factor affecting the prognosis of patients(OR=0.135,P=0.028;95%CI:0.023～0.809).The nomogram for predicting the recurrence of ganglion gan-glion showed that the consistency index of the risk prediction score model for predicting ganglion ganglion was 0.894(95%CI:0.815～0.946),and the average absolute error between the risk prediction score model and the actual occur-rence was 0.011.Conclusion The score model for predicting the recurrence of juvenile ganglion cysts constructed ac-cording to age,location of cysts and treatment method can effectively predict the recurrence risk of ganglion cysts and can be used for clinical judgment of patients'condition,but it still needs to be further clarified by multi-center and large sample study.
Ganglion cystTeenagersRecurrenceRisk prediction model
万方数据
维普
