Three Dimensional Analysis of Electric Vehicle Charging Load Probability Distribution Scene based on Monte Carlo Algorithm
Abs tract:The charging load of electric vehicles is affected by the randomness of vehicle owners'travel,which makes the load fluctuate randomly,thus resulting in a probability distribution inconsistent with the actual situation.To solve this problem,a three-dimensional analysis method based on Monte Carlo algo-rithm for electric vehicle charging load probability distribution scene is proposed.According to the time-space distribution characteristics of electric vehicle load,the Monte Carlo algorithm is used to design the travel chain structure of electric vehicles.The charging state of the battery is determined by the mileage of each road section,and the charging demand load is analyzed.Via calculating the load joint distribution quantile of the continuous time interval set,extracting the load distribution three-dimensional scene,calcu-lating the similarity of load samples of the independent distribution scene and the joint distribution scene,and clustering the extracted three-dimensional scene load data with the K-center clustering method,the scene volatility was better characterized.When splicing,the Monte Carlo statistical method is used to col-lect loads in two consecutive periods.By analyzing the state of charge at the time of travel start,travel and arrival,the three-dimensional scene analysis is realized to effectively avoid the impact of extreme values and prevent scene shortage after splicing.The experimental results show that the residential area load probability of this method is mainly concentrated in 18:00-24:00,and the working area load probability is mainly concentrated in 08:00-11:00,which is consistent with the actual probability distribution area,which verifies the effectiveness of this method.
Monte Carlo algorithmElectric vehicleCharging loadProbability distributionScene 3D
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
