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政府生育保险有效支出对生育意愿的影响效应

The Influence of Effective Expenditure of Government Maternity Insurance on Fertility Intention

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我国正面临着进入低生育率社会的挑战,如何发挥政府作用以有效提高生育意愿是当前提升生育水平的重要议题.基于生育风险防范的视角,借助世代交叠模型从理论上分析政府生育保险有效支出对生育意愿的影响机制,进而对其影响效应进行实证检验.研究结果显示,政府生育保险有效支出的增加能够提高居民的生育意愿.位于生育保险高领取比例地区、低人口规模地区以及年龄在20~35岁范围内的居民受到的影响更为显著.鉴于此,应进一步提高政府生育保险有效支出水平,借助转移支付政策优化生育补贴机制,完善鼓励生育的配套措施,构建兼具综合性与动态化的政府生育支持体系,以提升居民生育意愿,应对生育风险,推动我国人口健康均衡发展.
China is facing the challenge of low fertility society.How to play the role of the government to effectively improve the fertility desire is an important issue to improve the fertility level.Based on the perspec-tive of fertility risk prevention,on the basis of combining the expenditure level of government maternity insur-ance fund and residents'satisfaction,this paper constructs the effective expenditure of government maternity insurance as the core explanatory variable,analyzes its influence mechanism on fertility intention theoretically with the help of overlapping generations model,and constructs Tobit model for empirical test.The results show that the increase of effective expenditure of government maternity insurance can improve the fertility intention of residents.Residents in areas with a high proportion of maternity insurance,residents in areas with a low pop-ulation size,and residents aged 20-35 years are more significantly affected.In light of these findings,we should further improve the effective expenditure level of government maternity insurance,optimize the materni-ty subsidy mechanism with the help of transfer payment policy,improve the supporting measures to encourage fertility,and build a comprehensive and dynamic government fertility support system to enhance residents'fer-tility willingness,cope with fertility risks,and promote the healthy and balanced development of China's popu-lation.

Effective expenditure of government maternity insuranceFertility intentionGovernment re-sponsibilityBirth support policyBirth risk

金双华、于征莆、孟令雨

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东北财经大学财政税务学院,辽宁大连,116025

政府生育保险有效支出 生育意愿 政府责任 生育支持政策 生育风险

辽宁省社会科学规划基金重点学科建设项目

L23ZD021

2024

学习与实践

学习与实践

CSSCICHSSCD北大核心
ISSN:
年,卷(期):2024.(3)
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