Predictive value of lactate/albumin ratio,interleukin-6 and CD4+T lymphocyte count in the short-term prognosis of severe pneumonia and sepsis
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目的 探讨乳酸/白蛋白比值(LAR)、白细胞介素-6(IL-6)、CD4+T淋巴细胞计数对重症肺炎并脓毒症患者28 d死亡的预测价值.方法 选择2022年1月至2023年6月郑州大学附属郑州中心医院呼吸重症医学科(RICU)收治的73例重症肺炎并脓毒症患者为研究对象,依据患者28 d生存结局将其分为生存组(n=43)和死亡组(n=30).通过查阅电子病历收集患者的临床资料,包括:年龄、性别及合并高血压、糖尿病、冠状动脉性心脏病(CHD)情况,入住RICU治疗时的序贯器官衰竭评分(SOFA)、急性生理与慢性健康状态评价系统Ⅱ(APACHE Ⅱ)评分、平均动脉压(MAP)、英国胸科协会改良肺炎评分(CURB-65)、总胆红素(Tbil)、血肌酐(Scr)、血小板计数(PLT)、白细胞(WBC)计数、降钙素原(PCT)、C-反应蛋白(CRP).入住RICU后第1、3、7天,抽取患者动脉血,应用全自动血气分析仪检测乳酸水平;抽取患者外周静脉血,应用酶联免疫吸附试验检测患者血清中白蛋白和白细胞介素-6(IL-6)水平,流式细胞仪检测CD4+T淋巴细胞亚群计数;计算2组患者第1、3、7天的LAR.比较2组患者的临床资料及第1、3、7天的LAR、IL-6及CD4+T淋巴细胞计数水平,应用logistic回归分析重症肺炎并脓毒症患者28 d死亡的影响因素,受试者操作特征(ROC)曲线评估各影响因素对重症肺炎并脓毒症患者28 d死亡的预测价值.结果 2组患者的性别、年龄、合并高血压占比、合并糖尿病占比、合并CHD占比、RICU住院时间以及入住RICU时的Tbil、MAP、PLT、Scr、WBC、PCT、CRP比较差异均无统计学意义(P＞0.05);死亡组患者的APACHE Ⅱ评分、CURB-65评分显著高于生存组(P＜0.05).第1、3、7天,死亡组患者的CD4+T淋巴细胞计数显著低于生存组,SOFA评分显著高于生存组(P＜0.05).第1天,死亡组与生存组患者的LAR、IL-6水平比较差异无统计学意义(P＞0.05);第3、7天,死亡组患者的LAR及IL-6水平显著高于生存组(P＜0.05).生存组患者第3、7天的LAR、IL-6、SOFA评分显著低于第1天,第7天的LAR、IL-6、SOFA显著低于第3天(P＜0.05);生存组患者第3、7天的CD4+T淋巴细胞计数显著高于第1天(P＜0.05);生存组患者第7天与第3天的CD4+T淋巴细胞计数比较差异无统计学意义(P＞0.05).死亡组患者第7天的IL-6水平显著低于第1、3天(P＜0.05),第1天的IL-6水平与第3天比较差异无统计学意义(P＞0.05);LAR、CD4+T淋巴细胞计数、SOFA评分各时间点间比较差异无统计学意义(P＞0.05).Pearson相关性分析显示,第3天,重症肺炎并脓毒症患者LAR、IL-6水平与SOFA评分呈显著正相关(r=0.385、0.394,P＜0.05);第7天,LAR、IL-6与SOFA评分亦呈显著正相关(r=0.418、0.402,P＜0.05);第3、7天,CD4+T淋巴细胞计数与SOFA评分均呈显著负相关(r=-0.451、-0.454,P＜0.05).Logistic 回归分析结果显示,APACHE Ⅱ 评分、第 3 天的 LAR、IL-6、CD4+T淋巴细胞计数及第7天的IL-6、CD4+T淋巴细胞计数是重症肺炎并脓毒症28 d死亡的影响因素(P＜0.05).ROC曲线显示,APACHE Ⅱ评分,第3天的LAR、IL-6、CD4+T淋巴细胞计数及三者联合,第7天的IL-6、CD4+T淋巴细胞计数及二者联合对重症肺炎并脓毒症患者的28 d死亡均有一定预测价值(P＜0.05);第3天的LAR、IL-6和CD4+T淋巴细胞计数联合预测重症肺炎并脓毒症患者28 d死亡的ROC曲线下面积(AUC)为0.891,APACHE Ⅱ评分预测重症肺炎并脓毒症患者28 d死亡的AUC值为0.769,第3天的LAR、IL-6、CD4+T淋巴细胞计数预测重症肺炎并脓毒症28 d死亡的AUC值分别为0.795、0.757、0.770,第7天的IL-6、CD4+T淋巴细胞计数及二者联合预测重症肺炎并脓毒症28 d死亡的AUC值分别为0.743、0.802、0.888.结论 入院3 d LAR、3 d IL-6、3 d CD4+T淋巴细胞计数以及7 d IL-6、7 d CD4+T淋巴细胞计数是影响重症肺炎并脓毒症患者28 d死亡的相关因素;联合检测第3天的LAR、IL-6、CD4+T淋巴细胞计数能够更好地评估患者病情严重程度及预后.
Objective To investigate the predictive value of lactate/albumin ratio(LAR),interleukin-6(IL-6)and CD4+T lymphocyte count in 28-day mortality in patients with severe pneumonia and sepsis.Methods A total of 73 patients with severe pneumonia and sepsis admitted to the Respiratory Intensive Care Unit(RICU)of Zhengzhou Central Hospital Affiliated to Zhengzhou University from January 2022 to June 2023 were enrolled and divided into the survival group(n=43)and the death group(n=30)according to their 28-day outcomes.The clinical data of the patients were collected from their electronic medical records,including age,gender,comorbidities with hypertension,diabetes,and coronary artery heart disease(CHD),as well as sequential organ failure assessment(SOFA)score,acute physiology and chronic health evaluation Ⅱ(APACHE Ⅱ)score,mean arterial pressure(MAP),confusion,uremia,respiratory rate,blood pressure,age ≥65 years(CURB-65)score,total bilirubin(Tbil),serum creatinine(Scr),platelet count(PLT),white blood cell(WBC)count,procalcitonin(PCT),and C-reactive protein(CRP)at admission to RICU.On the 1st,3rd,and 7th day after admission to RICU,the patients'arterial blood was drawn,and the lactate level was detected by a fully automated blood gas analyzer.The peripheral venous blood was drawn,and the serum albumin and IL-6 levels were detected by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay,and the CD4+T lymphocyte subset count was measured by flow cytometry.The LAR of patients on the 1st,3rd and 7th day was calculated.The clinical data of the patients and the LAR,IL-6 level and CD4+T lymphocyte count on the 1st,3rd,and 7th day were compared between the two groups.The influencing factors of 28-day mortality in patients with severe pneumonia and sepsis were analyzed by logistic regression,and the predictive value of each influencing factor on the 28-day mortality in patients with severe pneumonia and sepsis was evaluated by the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve.Results There was no significant difference in gender,age,proportions of comorbidities with hypertension,diabetes and CHD,length of stay in RICU,and Tbil,MAP,PLT,Scr,WBC,PCT and CRP at admission to RICU(P＞0.05).The APACHE Ⅱ and CURB-65 scores of the patients in the death group were significantly higher than those in the survival group(P＜0.05).On the 1st,3rd and 7th day,the CD4+T lymphocyte count in the death group was significantly lower than that in the survival group,while the SOFA score was significantly higher than that in the survival group(P＜0.05).On the first day,there was no significant difference in the LAR and IL-6 level be-tween the death group and the survival group(P＞0.05).However,on the 3rd and 7th day,the LAR and IL-6 level in the death group were significantly higher than those in the survival group(P＜0.05).The LAR,IL-6 level and SOFA score on the 3rd and 7th day in the survival group were significantly lower than those on the 1st day,and these indicators on the 7th day were sig-nificantly lower than those on the 3rd day(P＜0.05);the CD4+T lymphocyte count on the 3rd and 7th day was significantly higher than that on the 1st day(P＜0.05),while it showed no significant difference on the 7th and 3r day(P＞0.05).The IL-6 level on the 7th day in the death group was significantly lower than that on the 1st and 3rd day(P＜0.05),while there was no significant difference in IL-6 level on the 1st day compared with the 3r day(P＞0.05);moreover,there was no significant difference in LAR,CD4+T lymphocyte count and SOFA score between each time point(P＞0.05).Pearson correlation analy-sis showed that on the 3rd day,the LAR and IL-6 level were significantly positively correlated with the SOFA score in patients with severe pneumonia and sepsis(r=0.385,0.394;P＜0.05).On the 7th day,the LAR and IL-6 level were also significantly positively correlated with the SOFA score(r=0.418,0.402;P＜0.05).On the 3 rd and 7 th day,CD4+T lymphocyte count was significantly negatively correlated with the SOFA score(r=-0.451,-0.454;P＜0.05).Logistic regression analysis showed that the APACHE Ⅱ score,LAR,IL-6 level and CD4+T lymphocyte count on the 3rd day,and the IL-6 level and CD4+T lym-phocyte count on the 7th day were the influencing factors for 28-day mortality in patients with severe pneumonia and sepsis(P＜0.05).The ROC curve showed that the APACHE Ⅱ score,LAR,IL-6 level and CD4+T lymphocyte count on the 3rd day and the combination of the three,IL-6 level and CD4+T lymphocyte count on the 7th day and the combination of the two had certain predictive value for the 28-day mortality in patients with severe pneumonia and sepsis(P＜0.05).The area under the ROC curve(AUC)of LAR,IL-6 level and CD4+T lymphocyte count on the 3rd day combined to predict 28-day mortality in patients with severe pneumonia and sepsis was 0.891,and the AUC of APACHE Ⅱ score for predicting 28-day mortality in pa-tients with severe pneumonia and sepsis was 0.769.The AUC values of LAR,IL-6 level and CD4+T lymphocyte count on the 3rd day for predicting 28-day mortality in patients with severe pneumonia and sepsis were 0.795,0.757 and 0.770,respective-ly,and the AUC values of IL-6 level and CD4+T lymphocyte count on the 7th day and their combination for predicting 28-day mortality in patients with severe pneumonia and sepsis were 0.743,0.802 and 0.888,respectively.Conclusion The 3-day LAR,IL-6 level and CD4+T lymphocyte count,and the 7-day IL-6 level and CD4+T lymphocyte count after admission are re-lated to the 28-day mortality in patients with severe pneumonia and sepsis.The combined LAR,IL-6 level and CD4+T lympho-cyte count on the 3rd day can better assess the severity and prognosis of patients.
severe pneumoniasepsislactate/albumin ratiointerleukin-6CD4+T lymphocyte countprognosis
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