Objective To explore the predictive value of serum cathepsin S(CTSS),progranulin(PGRN)and chemo-kine ligand 12(CXCL12)for acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(COPD).Methods A total of 202 patients with COPD who were admitted to the Tongling Municipal Hospital from January 2020 to February 2023 were selected as the research subjects.The patients were divided into an acute exacerbation group(n=64)and a non-acute exacerbation group(n=138)according to whether acute exacerbation occurred.Clinical data such as serum CTSS,PGRN and CXCL12 levels,age,gender,body mass index(BMI),disease course,smoking history,forced expiratory volume in one second/forced vital capacity ratio(FEV1％),and COPD assessment test(CAT)score in the stable period were collected.Univariate analysis was made to compare the differences in relevant indicators between the two groups,and multivariate logistic regression analysis was made to identify the independent risk factors for acute exacerbation in COPD patients.The Pearson correlation method was used to analyze the correlation between serum CTSS,PGRN,CXCL12 levels and FEV1％,CAT score.Relative risk analysis was used to evaluate the influence of different CTSS,PGRN and CXCL12 levels on acute exacerbation in COPD patients.The predictive efficacy of serum CTSS,PGRN and CXCL12 levels on acute exacerbation in COPD patients was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve.Results Univariate analysis showed that there was no significant difference in age,sex,BMI and disease course of patients between the two groups(P＞0.05),while there were significant differences in the propor-tion of patients with smoking history,FEV1％,CAT score,and serum CTSS,PGRN and CXCL12 levels between the two groups(P＜0.05).Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that elevated serum CTSS,PGRN and CXCL12 levels were risk factors for acute exacerbation in COPD patients(P＜0.05).There were significant differences in serum CTSS,PGRN and CXCL12 levels among patients with different FEV1％and CAT scores(P＜0.05).Pearson correlation analysis showed that serum CTSS,PGRN and CXCL12 levels were negatively correlated with FEV1％and positively correlated with CAT score(P＜0.05).Risk analysis showed that the risk of acute exacerbation in COPD patients with high serum CTSS,PGRN and CXCL12 levels was 2.089 times[95％confidence interval(CI):1.341-3.253],2.294 times(95％CI:1.363-3.862)and 2.359 times(95％CI:1.459-3.815)of the COPD patients with low serum CTSS,PGRN and CXCL12 levels.ROC analysis indica-ted that the area under the curve for predicting the risk of acute exacerbation in COPD patients based on serum CTSS,PGRN and CXCL12 levels alone was 0.780,0.811 and 0.755,respectively;the area under the curve for predicting the risk of acute exacerbation in COPD patients based on the combination of serum CTSS,PGRN and CXCL12 levels was 0.923.Conclusion Serum CTSS,PGRN and CXCL12 levels are risk factors for acute exacerbation of COPD.Abnormal elevation of serum CTSS,PGRN and CXCL12 levels can significantly increase the risk of acute exacerbation of COPD.The combination of serum CTSS,PGRN and CXCL12 levels is more effective in predicting the risk of acute exacerbation of COPD.
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