Safety and Stability Measurement and Constraints of Grain Production——Taking Henan Province as an Example
Based on the economic law of supply and demand balance,the grain security evaluation system in Henan Province is constructed,combined with the change of grain center of gravity,and the entropy method and obstacle model method are used to measure the stability level and constraints of grain productivity in Henan Province from 1985 to 2021.The results show that:(1)while the proportion of grain consumption in Henan province decreases,the total consumption does not decrease,and the proportion of feed consumption and industrial consumption also increases gradually.(2)The changes of the focus of grain production in Henan Province is as follows:peanut＞eggs＞milk＞soybean＞cattle＞Corn＞sheep＞wheat＞pig.The cen-ter of agricultural and animal husbandry is interlaced and moves to the arid areas,which aggravates the water shortage and the vulnerability of the ecosystem.(3)From 1985 to 2015,the grain production evaluation index decreased rapidly,and from 2015 to 2021 was relatively stable,with a large inter-annual fluctuation range,and the stability of grain production was poor.(4)The factors affecting the stability of grain productivity in Henan Province mainly include resource shortage and environmental pollution,etc.Food ecological security is the main weakness in the stability of grain production in Henan Province.
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