首页|淮海经济区县域人口与经济关系的时空演变

淮海经济区县域人口与经济关系的时空演变

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人口与经济协调发展是促进区域可持续发展的重要基础,统筹协调好人口与经济关系是推动新型城镇化和高质量发展的必然要求.基于2005年、2010年、2015年和2020年4期的人口与经济数据,分析淮海经济区县域单元人口与经济关系的空间格局演变,并采用双向固定效应面板回归模型探究影响县域常住人口数量增长的经济因素.结果表明,淮海经济区人口与经济的空间协调性趋向增强;区域内部人口和经济集聚的极化中心,对二者的协调发展不具有负面影响;只有缩小与周边发达城市的差距,经济发展才能有效遏制当地户籍人口的外迁;经济发展与居民储蓄提升的交互作用,会正向调节它们的抑制作用;发展第三产业是促进县域常住人口增长的有效措施,对于乡县而言,工业发展的效果则更加显著.最后,给出产业发展吸纳入口和发展知识密集性产业留住人才的建议.
Spatiotemporal evolution of the relationship between population and economy at the county scale in Huaihai Economic Zone
The coordinated development of population and economy is an important foundation for promoting regional sustainable development,and coordinating the relationship between population and economy is an inevitable require-ment for promoting new urbanization and high-quality development.Based on population and economic data from four periods in 2005,2010,2015,and 2020,the spatial pattern evolution of the population and economic relation-ship in county-level units of Huaihai Economic Zone is analyed,and bi-directional fixed effects panel regression mod-el is used to explore the economic factors that affect the growth of the county's permanent population.The results indicate that the spatial coordination between population and economy in Huaihai Economic Zone tends to increase;the polarization center of population and economic agglomeration within the region does not have a negative impact on their coordinated development;only by narrowing the gap with the surrounding developed cities can economic de-velopment effectively curb the emigration of local registered population;the interaction between economic develop-ment and the increase in household savings will positively regulate their inhibitory effect;developing the tertiary in-dustry is an effective measure to promote the growth of permanent population in counties,but for rural units,the effect of manufacturing development is even more significant.Finally,suggestions are provided for industrial devel-opment to absorb population and for developing knowledge intensive industries to retain talents.

populationeconomyspatiotemporal patterncounty scaleHuaihai Economic Zone

刘承权、沈正平

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江苏师范大学地理测绘与城乡规划学院,江苏徐州 221116

江苏师范大学淮海发展研究院,江苏徐州 221009

人口 经济 时空格局 县域尺度 淮海经济区

江苏省决策咨询研究基地项目江苏省决策咨询研究基地项目江苏省高等学校优势学科建设工程项目江苏师范大学研究生科研与实践创新项目

22SSL06023SSL0552022XKT0098

2024

江苏师范大学学报(自然科学版)
江苏师范大学

江苏师范大学学报(自然科学版)

影响因子:0.323
ISSN:1007-6573
年,卷(期):2024.42(1)
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