Analysis on time series of reported numbers about pulmonary TB cases in Sichuan Province 2018 to 2022
Objective To explore the temporal distribution characteristics of epidemic situation about pulmonary TB cases in Sichuan Province,and to provide evidences for formulating provincial strategies of prevention and control of tuberculosis.Methods The reported numbers about pulmonary TB cases in Sichuan Province from 2018 to 2022 were exported quarterly by the subsystem-infectious diseases monitoring system of Chinese Diseases Prevention and Control Information System.The method of Kendall r coefficient was used to test the trend of time series.The time series was processed by moving average model,and Kruskal-Wallis test was used for seasonal test with the processed results.If the test was past,the additive model would used to build a seasonal modeling,and the scientific rationality of the model to fit quarterly distribution characteristics of reported numbers about pulmonary TB cases in Sichuan province was evaluated.Results The test of Kendall τ coefficient(τ=-0.505,P=0.001)indicated that the quarterly time-series had a downward linear trend.According to the Kruskal-Wallis test(H=11.71,P=0.008 4),it adequately showed that the time-series had a seasonal component.The fitted model equation was:(z)t=13 273-136.68t+(S)*t,and the calculated mean absolute percentage error(MAPE)was 2.80,less than 10,it indicated a high degree of fitting between the prediction equation and the time-series.Conclusions The numbers of TB reported cases in Sichuan province have the characteristics of quarterly distribution,so we should pay attention to it when formulating prevention and control strategies of tuberculosis.
pulmonary tuberculosismorbidityanalysis of time seriesSichuan province
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
