Application of SARIMA model in predicting the reported incidence trend of foodborne diseases in Jiangyin City
Objective To apply SARIMA model to predict the incidence trend of foodborne diseases in Jiangyin based on the monitoring data of foodborne diseases in Jiangyin City.Methods The SARIMA prediction model was established by using the reported data of foodborne diseases in Jiangyin from January 2018 to June 2022.The established model was verified by the reported data from July 2022 to December 2022,and the reported incidence of foodborne diseases in Jiangyin from January to June 2023 was predicted.The test level was α=0.05.Results SARIMA(0,0,1)(1,1,1)12 model could well fit the monthly reported incidence data of foodborne diseases in Jiangyin City from January 2018 to June 2022,and could accurately predict the short-term reported incidence in the future,with MAPE as 17.17％.Conclusions SARIMA model can be used for short-term prediction of the reported incidence trend of foodborne diseases in Jiangyin City,and can be used as a reference model for prediction and early warning of foodborne diseases,providing theoretical basis for the prevention and control of foodborne diseases.
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
