Application of moving epidemic methods in the early warning of influenza epidemic classification in Fangshan District of Beijing
Objective To explore the application of moving epidemic methods(MEM)in the early warning of influenza epidemic,to estimate the influenza epidemic intensity in Fangshan District of Beijing from 2020 to 2021,and to evaluate the application effects.Methods The weekly numbers of influenza-like cases(ILI)and the percentage of influenza-like cases(ILI％)by hospitals of grade two or above in Fangshan District of Beijing from 2014 to 2020 were collected to establish MEM models respectively.An optimal model was established to estimate the epidemic threshold and classification intensity threshold of influenza from 2020 to 2021.The early warning effect of MEM was verified by cross-validation method.Results The models fitted by ILI and ILI％data had good results.Modeling based on ILI data showed that,the epidemic threshold,medium,high and extremely high intensity thresholds from 2020 to 2021 were 603,1 110,1 705 and 1 925 cases,respectively.The sensitivity was 0.84,the specificity was 0.97,the Matthews correlation coefficient was 0.80,and the Jorden's index was 0.80.Modeling based on ILI％data showed that,the epidemic threshold,medium,high and extremely high intensity thresholds from 2020 to 2021 were 1.29％,2.36％,3.35％and 3.70％,respectively.The sensitivity was 0.84,the specificity was 0.96,the Matthews correlation coefficient was 0.79,and the Jorden's index was 0.80.Conclusions The MEM models based on ILI and ILI％data in this study had high sensitivity and specificity in Fangshan District of Beijing,which can be used to establish an influenza early warning system and provide reference for influenza prevention and control.
万方数据
维普
