Epidemiological characteristics and temporal-spatial clustering of scarlet fever in Sichuan Province from 2015 to 2022
Objective To understand epidemiological characteristics,dynamic change trend and temporal-spatial clustering of scarlet fever in Sichuan Province,and to provide reference for scientific prevention and control.Methods Data were exported through the Infectious Disease Surveillance and Surveillance Report Management systems of Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention.Description epidemiology analysis was conducted to analyze epidemiological characteristics and trends of scarlet fever in Sichuan Province from 2015 to 2022.R 4.3.0 software was used to draw the monthly distribution heat map,and SaTScan 10.0 software was used for retrospective temporal-spatial scanning statistics.Results The average annual incidence of scarlet fever from 2015 to 2022 was 1.95/105,the incidence showed a fluctuating downward trend(Z=-25.43,P＜0.001).Confirmed cases accounted for 3.84％.Compared with even years,odd years had higher incidence intensity and wider range.In addition to 2020,the incidence of scarlet fever showed two peaks,the peaks were from April to July and from October to January of the next year,and the peak in spring was higher than that in winter.The cases were concentrated in 3-6 years old,and children and students accounted for 83.72％of the total cases.The incidence was higher in men than in women(x2=322.34,P＜0.001).Most of the reported hospitals were grade 3,with 74.61％of the reported cases.The top 5 incidence areas were Leshan,Liangshan,Mianyang,Chengdu and Zigong.The average annual incidence of scarlet fever was 1.45/105 from 2020 to 2022,down 35.60％from 2.25/105 dein 2015 to 2019,among them,the incidence of scarlet fever in 15 regions had decreased,and the incidence of scarlet fever in Ganzi,Yibin,Luzhou and Zigong have a large increase.A total of 4 temporal-spatial clusters(1 Category Ⅰ cluster and 3 Category Ⅱ cluster)were detected by temporal-spatial scanning,of which category Ⅰ cluster was located in Meishan,Leshan and Chengdu from 9 January 2015 to 8 January 2019(scanning radius=86.34 km,LLR=1220.49,RR=2.81,P＜0.001).Conclusions The incidence of scarlet fever had been decreasing in Sichuan Province,especially during the COVID-19 pandemic.3-6 years old children in kindergarten have a high incidence.It is recommended that targeted health education and monitoring should be carried out in preschool institutions and schools in areas with high incidence before the onset peak,that is,in March and September after the start of school.Strengthen the diagnostic capacity of medical institutions,constantly improve the proportion of laboratory diagnosis,and beware of missed diagnosis,missed alarm and false alarm.
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