Joinpoint regression analysis on trends of human rabies incidence in China from 2002 to 2021
Objective To analyze the time trend characteristics of human rabies incidence in China from 2002 to 2021,so as to provide a reference for rabies prevention and control.Methods Data of human rabies incidence were collected from Public Health Science Data Sharing Center of China,the China Statistical Yearbook of Health and the official website of the National Health Commission.Joinpoint regression analysis was used to analyze the time trend characteristics of human rabies incidence in eastern,western and central areas of China during 2002 to 2021.Results An average annual inci-dence of human rabies incidence in China from 2002 to 2021 was 0.11 cases/105.Human rabies incidence increased annual-ly by 19.54％from 2007 to 2021(t=-8.41,P＜0.05),with an average annual percent change of 10.7％(95％CI:-12.3--8.43,P＜0.05).Human rabies incidence in eastern areas descended annually by 36.51％from 2016 to 2021(t=-4.63,P＜0.05),with an average annual percent change of-14.6％(95％CI:-16.4--12.9),P＜0.05).Human rabies incidence in central areas exceeded eastern areas and western areas,meanwhile human rabies incidence in central are-as increased annually by 65.12％from 2002 to 2004(t=2.76,P＜0.05).Human rabies incidence in western areas de-scended annually by 49.51％from 2019 to 2021,with an average annual percent change of-9.8％(95％CI:-11.3--8.5,P＜0.05).The human rabies incidence and average growth rate in January to March were lower than that in April to December from 2002 to 2021(P＜0.05),nevertheless there was no significant difference in the trend of inci-dence between the second quarter to fourth quarter(P＞0.05).Conclusion The incidence of human rabies of China shows a trend of continuous decrease.The incidence of human rabies in central areas is higher than that in eastern and western areas,while the rate of descent in eastern and western areas is higher than that in central areas.
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