沈阳市输入性疟疾引起继发传播的风险评估指标体系构建
Risk assessment index system establishment of secondary transmission caused by imported malaria in Shenyang city
陈会杰 1寇瀚文 1张昭玉 1温立海 1陈叶1
作者信息
- 1. 沈阳市疾病预防控制中心传染病防制所,辽宁 110623
- 折叠
摘要
目的 构建沈阳市输入性疟疾引起继发传播的风险评估指标体系,为科学开展输入性疟疾引起继发传播的风险评估工作提供参考.方法 2023年7月,针对输入性疟疾引起继发传播的可能风险因素,运用Delphi专家咨询法,开展两轮专家咨询,建立沈阳市输入性疟疾引起继发传播的风险评估指标体系,并进行专家评价和重要性评分评价.结果 共选择19名专家,专家积极系数为100％,各项指标的权威系数均值均达到了 0.86以上.两轮咨询后,各项指标变异系数在0.03～0.34,变异系数中位数为0.17(0.11,0.21);各项指标满分比在0.68～0.96,满分比中位数为0.86(0.79,0.91).构建了由3个一级指标和12个二级指标组成的风险评估指标体系,一级指标中传染源权重最高(0.3446),二级指标中组合权重前三位依次是病例出国史主动告知(0.0363)、"1-3-7"工作执行情况(0.0361)、潜伏期感染者流动性(0.0358).结论 本研究构建了输入性疟疾引起继发传播风险评估指标体系,传染源是影响沈阳市疟疾传播的主要风险,针对入境人员出国史调查、疟原虫筛查以及发病后的科学规范管理是遏制输入性疟疾再传播的关键.
Abstract
Objective To establish a risk assessment index system for secondary transmission caused by imported malaria in Shenyang city,so as to provide reference for scientific risk assessment.Methods In July 2023,focusing on the poten-tial risk factors of secondary transmission caused by imported malaria,2 rounds of expert consultation were carried out with Delphi method to establish the risk assessment index system of secondary transmission caused by imported malaria in Shenyang city,and the expert evaluation and importance evaluation were carried out.Results A total of 19 experts were selected,the positive coefficient of experts was 100％,and the average authority coefficient of each index reached more than 0.86.After 2 rounds of consultation,the coefficient of variation of each index ranged from 0.03-0.34 with a median value of 0.17(0.11,0.21).The full score ratio of each index ranged from 0.68-0.96 with a median value of 0.86(0.79,0.91).A risk assessment index system consisting of 3 primary indicators and 12 secondary indicators was constructed.The primary indicator had the highest weight of infection source(0.344 6),and the top 3 combined weights of secondary indi-cators were active notification of the history of cases traveling abroad(0.036 3),the implementation of"1-3-7"work(0.036 1),and the mobility of infected persons in incubation period(0.035 8).Conclusion This study has established a risk assessment index system for secondary transmission caused by imported malaria.The infectious source was the prima-ry risk factor affecting the spread of malaria in Shenyang city.Investigating the travel history of incoming personnel,screening for plasmodium parasites,and conducting scientific and standardized management after the onset of the disease were the keys to containing the re-spread of imported malaria.
关键词
输入性疟疾/继发传播/风险评估/指标体系/德尔菲法Key words
Imported malaria/Secondary transmission/Risk assessment/Index system/Delphi method引用本文复制引用
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据