Risk assessment index system establishment of secondary transmission caused by imported malaria in Shenyang city
Objective To establish a risk assessment index system for secondary transmission caused by imported malaria in Shenyang city,so as to provide reference for scientific risk assessment.Methods In July 2023,focusing on the poten-tial risk factors of secondary transmission caused by imported malaria,2 rounds of expert consultation were carried out with Delphi method to establish the risk assessment index system of secondary transmission caused by imported malaria in Shenyang city,and the expert evaluation and importance evaluation were carried out.Results A total of 19 experts were selected,the positive coefficient of experts was 100％,and the average authority coefficient of each index reached more than 0.86.After 2 rounds of consultation,the coefficient of variation of each index ranged from 0.03-0.34 with a median value of 0.17(0.11,0.21).The full score ratio of each index ranged from 0.68-0.96 with a median value of 0.86(0.79,0.91).A risk assessment index system consisting of 3 primary indicators and 12 secondary indicators was constructed.The primary indicator had the highest weight of infection source(0.344 6),and the top 3 combined weights of secondary indi-cators were active notification of the history of cases traveling abroad(0.036 3),the implementation of"1-3-7"work(0.036 1),and the mobility of infected persons in incubation period(0.035 8).Conclusion This study has established a risk assessment index system for secondary transmission caused by imported malaria.The infectious source was the prima-ry risk factor affecting the spread of malaria in Shenyang city.Investigating the travel history of incoming personnel,screening for plasmodium parasites,and conducting scientific and standardized management after the onset of the disease were the keys to containing the re-spread of imported malaria.
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