2011-2021年山东省淄博市人间布鲁氏菌病流行特征及空间聚集性分析
Analysis on epidemiological and spatio-temporal characteristics of brucellosis in Zibo city,Shandong province from 2011 to 2021
张玲 1马晓洁 2曹海霞 1崔峰 1孙晓明1
作者信息
- 1. 淄博市疾病预防控制中心传染病防制所,山东 255026
- 2. 潍坊医学院
- 折叠
摘要
目的 通过分析2011-2021年山东省淄博市人间布鲁氏菌病的流行情况和空间聚集性,为布鲁氏菌病防控提供科学依据.方法 采用描述流行病学分析方法,对山东省淄博市2011-2021年人间布鲁氏菌病流行病学调查资料进行分析,应用GeoDa及Arc Map软件对人间布鲁氏菌病疫情进行空间自相关分析.结果 2011-2021年淄博市共报告人间布鲁氏菌病1 570例,年均发病率为3.07/10万.男性发病高于女性(x2=221.47,P＜0.05);病例主要集中在40～69岁(1186例,75.54％);职业以农民为主(82.99％),累计病例数居两位的区县分别是淄川区397例(25.3％)、临淄区315例(20.1％).2011-2021年,全局Moran's I指数无统计学意义,不存在全局空间自相关性.局部空间自相关分析,"低-高"聚集区主要集中在淄博市中部的张店区,"高-低"聚集区集中在淄川区和高青县."低-低"聚集区,仅在2021年集中在博山区和沂源县.结论 山东省淄博市2011-2021年人间布鲁氏菌病发病率呈先上升后下降再反弹趋势,淄博地区各区县全局上在空间上不存在相关性,部分地区局部相关,主要集中在中部主城区.
Abstract
Objective To analyze the prevalence and spatial clustering characteristics of human brucellosis in Zibo city,Shandong province from 2011 to 2021,so as to provide a scientific basis for brucellosis prevention and control strategies.Methods Descriptive epidemiology analysis methods were used to analyze epidemiological data of human brucellosis in Zibo city from 2011 to 2021.GeoDa and ArcMap were applied to analyze the spatial autocorrelation of human brucellosis.Results From 2011 to 2021,a total of 1 570 cases of human brucellosis were reported in Zibo city,with an average an-nual incidence of 3.07/105.The incidence was higher in males than in females(x2=221.47,P＜0.05);cases were main-ly concentrated in the age group of 40-69 years(1 186 cases,75.54％);the occupation of cases was mainly farmers(82.99％),and the top 2 districts with highest cumulative number of cases were Zichuan district and Linzi district,with cases of 397(25.3％)and 315(20.1％),respectively.From 2011 to 2021,the Global Moran's I index from 2011 to 2021 was not statistically significant,indicating no global spatial autocorrelation.The local autocorrelation analysis showed that"low-high"clustering areas were mainly distributed in Zhangdian district in the central part of Zibo city.The"high-low"clustering areas were mainly distributed in Zichuan district and Gaoqing county.The"low-low"clustering area was only distributed in Boshan district and Yiyuan county in 2021.Conclusion The incidence of human brucellosis in Zibo city,Shandong province from 2011 to 2021 showed a trend of first increasing,then decreasing and then rebounding,and the dis-tricts and counties of Zibo region were globally not spatially correlated,and some areas were locally correlated,mainly con-centrated in the central main city.
关键词
布鲁氏菌病/流行特征/空间聚集性/人畜共患病/空间回归Key words
Brucellosis/Epidemiological characteristics/Spatial clustering/Zoonotic diseases/Spatial regression引用本文复制引用
基金项目
山东省传染病预防控制重点实验室开放课题(2017KEYLAB06)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据