Application of SARIMA model in predicting the incidence of mumps in Tai'an city
Objective To establish a Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average(SARIMA)model for the inci-dence of mumps and forecast the mumps incidence in Tai'an city,so as to provide a basis for mumps prevention and con-trol.Methods The mumps incidence data were sourced from the Monitoring and Reporting Management System of China's Disease Prevention and Control Information System.Data on mumps incidence in Tai'an city from January 2010 to June 2021 were collected based on current residential address and date of onset.Using SPSS 21.0,the optimal SARIMA model was established based on data from 2010 to 2020.This model was then used to predict the monthly incidence of mumps for January to June 2021.evaluate the model's fitting effect,and forecast the mumps incidence for July to December 2021.Results The monthly incidence trend of mumps in Tai'an city from 2010 to 2020 exhibited certain fluctuations and seasonal periodicity.The SARIMA(0,1,2)(1,1,0)12 model was identified as the optimal prediction model,with a good-ness-of-fit R2=0.773 and a Bayesian Information Criterion(BIC)value of 7.162.The Q-statistic was 9.877,and P＞0.05,indicating that the model residuals were white noise sequences,suggesting that the constructed model was reasona-ble.Conclusion The SARIMA(0,1,2)(1,1,0)12 model exhibits good fitting performance and can be used for short-term forecasting of the monthly incidence trend of mumps in Tai'an city.
万方数据
维普
