Simulation and Prediction of Runoff in Cold Alpine Basins under Climate Change Conditions
The Qaidam Basin is characterized by arid climate,water scarcity,and ecological fragility,while the alpine mountainous areas around the basin are important areas for the replenishment of water resources.It is of great significance to study the influence of climate change on runoff changes in the alpine mountainous areas of the Qaidam Basin.However,related researches are rare.This study selected a typical alpine mountainous river basin in the northeast of the Qaidam Basin,the upper reaches of the Bayin River,Qilian Mountain.Firstly,local intensity scaling of precipitation,and variance scaling of temperature were used to calibrate the climate change data in three climate change scenario modes(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP5-8.5)under the BCC-CSM2-MR model of CMIP6 based on observed precipitation and temperature data.Then,the calibrated climate data was coupled with the SWAT model.Finally,the impact of climate change on the runoff of the Bayin River in historical and future periods was simulated and predicted.The results indicated that the SWAT model performed good in simulation of historical streamflow in the moun-tainous Bayin River catachment;In Bayin River catchment,the precipitation,maximum temperature,minimum temperature,and the streamflow generated in the mountainous areas under the three scenarios from 2015 to 2100 showed an increasing trend.The climate in this area showed a warming and wetting trend from 2015 to 2100;Under the three scenarios,the surface runoff of the Bayin River catchment showed an increasing and then decreasing trend from 2015 to 2100.The lateral flow,groundwater flow,total water yield and snowmelt showed an increasing trend.The research results can provide scientific basis and theoretical support for water resource management and sustainable development in the Qaidam Basin.
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NSTL
万方数据
维普
