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西藏富锂盐湖-班戈错未来水位变化趋势预测

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利用2016-2020年班戈错水位观测资料,采用ARIMA季节乘积模型、Winters线性模型及时间序列分解模型建立针对该湖的水位预测模型.通过对比时间序列分解模型在班戈错水位预测精度较高,运用时间序列分解模型对2022-2024年水位进行了预测,确定未来3年将会出现水位的明显升高,水位增幅达到0.97 m.研究结果能为LiCl矿的开采提供精度较高的水位预测,并通过水位监测来指导班戈错矿田建设.
Prediction about Water Level Variations of Lithium-rich Salt Lake in Bankog Co,Xizang
Based on the water level observation data of Bankog Co from 2016 to 2020,the ARIMA sea-sonal product model,Winters linear model and time series decomposition model were used to establish a water level prediction model for this lake.Through comparison,it is determined that the time series decom-position model has higher accuracy in the prediction of water level in Bankog Co.The time series decompo-sition model is used to forecast the water level in 2022-2024,and the results show that the water level will rise significantly in the next three years,and the rise of water level will reach 0.97 m.The research can pro-vide more accuracy water level prediction for Bankog Co,which is characterized by high Li concentra-tions,and guide the construction of the Bankog Co mine field.

Lithium brineWater level changeWater level prediction modelBankog Co

李胜群、叶传永、赵元艺

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中国地质大学(北京)地球科学与资源学院,北京 100083

中国地质科学院矿产资源研究所自然资源部盐湖与环境重点实验室,北京 100037

中国地质科学院矿产资源研究所自然资源部青藏高原盐湖野外观测研究站,北京 100037

卤水锂矿 水位变化 水位预测模型 班戈错

青藏高原综合科学考察研究专题项目(第二次)国家自然科学基金企业委托项目

2022QZKK020191962219HE2210

2024

盐湖研究
中国科学院青海盐湖研究所

盐湖研究

CSTPCD
影响因子:0.319
ISSN:1008-858X
年,卷(期):2024.32(1)
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