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中国碳酸锂经济安全预警研究

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为深入研究碳酸锂经济安全,文章从资源禀赋、进口依赖、获取成本和地缘政治四个维度出发,构建了中国碳酸锂经济安全评价指标体系,运用常权和变权模型评估了 2009-2020年中国碳酸锂经济安全状况,采用GM(1,1)模型及BP神经网络模型对2021-2035年中国碳酸锂经济安全进行预警研究.结果表明:1.进口集中度、对外依存度及运输风险是影响碳酸锂经济安全的主要因素;2.2009-2020年中国碳酸锂经济安全总体呈下降趋势,安全等级由黄色—基本安全等级波动下降至橙色—不安全等级,资源禀赋和进口依赖是导致碳酸锂安全等级较低的主要原因;3.2021-2035年中国碳酸锂经济安全评分不断下降,除2021年和2026年处于黄色—基本安全等级外,其余年份均处于橙色—不安全等级.
Economic Security Warning of Lithium Carbonate in China
In order to further study the economic security of lithium carbonate,an evaluation index system was constructed for the economic security of lithium carbonate in China from four dimensions:resource en-dowment,import dependence,acquisition cost and geopolitics.The constant weight and variable weight models were used to evaluate the economic security of lithium carbonate in China from 2009 to 2020.The GM(1,1)model and BP neural network model were used to study the economic security of lithium carbon-ate in China from 2021 to 2035.The results show that:(1)Import concentration,external dependence and transportation risk are the main factors affecting the economic security of lithium carbonate;(2)From 2009 to 2020,the economic safety of lithium carbonate in China showed a downward trend,and the safety level fluctuated from yellow-basic safety level to orange-unsafe level,The resource endowment the import dependence are the main reasons for the low level of resource security;(3)From 2020 to 2035,the eco-nomic security score of China's lithium carbonate continued to decline.Except for 2021 and 2026,which were in the yellow-basic safety level,the rest of the years were in the orange-unsafe level.

Lithium carbonateEconomic securityEarly warningGM(1,1)modelBP neural network

郑明贵、刘丽珍、陶思敏、彭群婷

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江西理工大学经济管理学院,江西赣州 341000

中国科学技术大学管理学院,安徽 合肥 230026

碳酸锂 经济安全 预警 GM(1,1)模型 BP神经网络

国家社会科学基金

22XGL003

2024

盐湖研究
中国科学院青海盐湖研究所

盐湖研究

CSTPCD
影响因子:0.319
ISSN:1008-858X
年,卷(期):2024.32(2)
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