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具有医疗资源有限和Ornstein-Uhlenbeck过程的随机SIR传染病模型研究

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基于医疗资源的有限性和疾病的传播规律,提出一类具有Ornstein-Uhlenbeck 过程和一般发生率的随机SIR传染病模型.首先,讨论模型全局正解的存在唯一性并给出疾病灭绝性的充分条件.其次,通过构造合适的Lyapunov函数并应用Itô公式等方法,得到模型平稳分布的存在性.此外,通过求解Fokker-Planck方程,给出模型在拟地方病平衡点附近的密度函数的具体形式.最后通过数值模拟解释主要的理论结果并探讨随机扰动对疾病传播的影响.
Dynamics of Stochastic SIR Infectious Disease Modeling with Limited Medical Resource and Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Process
Based on the limited medical resources and the disease transmission law,a stochastic SIR infectious disease model with Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process and general incidence is proposed.First,we discuss the uniqueness of the global positive solution of the model and give a sufficient condition for the extinction of the solution of the stochastic model.Second,the existence of a stationary distribution of the model is obtained by constructing Lyapunov function and applying the Itô formula.In addition,by solving the Fokker-Planck equation,the specific form of the density function near the quasi-endemic equilibrium is given.Finally,numerical simulations are used to explain the main theoretical results and investigate the effect of random perturbations on disease transmission.

Stochastic infectious disease modelLimited medical resourceExtinctionStationary distributionProbability density function

刘晓虎、曹虹、聂麟飞

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新疆大学数学与系统科学学院,新疆乌鲁木齐 830017

随机传染病模型 医疗资源有限 灭绝性 平稳分布 概率密度函数

2025

应用数学
华中科技大学

应用数学

北大核心
影响因子:0.234
ISSN:1001-9847
年,卷(期):2025.38(1)