Age-period-cohort analysis and prediction of the disease burden of age-relat-ed macular degeneration in China from 1990 to 2021
Objective To analyze the changing trend of the disease burden of age-related macular degeneration(AMD)in China from 1990 to 2021 and the impact of age,period,and cohort effects,and to predict the standardized prev-alence and disability-adjusted life year(DALY)rate of AMD in China from 2022 to 2035.Methods The data on the preva-lence of AMD,the number of AMD patients,DALYs,and DALY rates in China from 1990 to 2021 were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease(GBD 2021).The segmented regression model was used to analyze the trend changes in the prev-alence and DALY of patients with AMD in China,the age-period-cohort(APC)model was employed to estimate the age,period,and cohort effects related to the prevalence risk and DALY risk of AMD,and the Bayesian age-period cohort model was used to analyze the standardized prevalence and DALY rate of AMD in China from 2022 to 2035.Results Compared with 1990,the number of AMD patients and the prevalence of this disease in China in 2021 increased by 199.94％and 148.02％,respectively,and the DALYs and DALY rate increased by 183.95％and 134.80％,respectively,with the higher value of relevant indicators observed in females compared with males.From 1990 to 2021,the standardized prevalence of AMD in China showed an increasing trend,with the average annual percentage change(AAPC)being 0.17％.In contrast,the standardized DALY rate of AMD showed a decreasing trend,with the AAPC being-0.03％.The results of the age-peri-od-cohort model showed that the longitudinal age curves for both the prevalence and DALY rate of AMD in China showed an increasing and then decreasing trend,peaking at 85-89 years of age.Over time,the prevalence risk of AMD increased and then decreased,while the DALY risk continued to decline.The birth cohort analysis results showed that the overall fluctua-tion of the AMD prevalence risk cohort effect in China was small,with a decline first and then a fluctuating increase.Mean-while,the DALY risk gradually decreased as the birth cohort moved backward.It can be predicted that both the standard-ized prevalence and the standardized DALY rate of AMD may present an upward trend in China from 2022 to 2035.Conclu-sion From 1990 to 2021,the standardized prevalence of AMD in China displays an upward trend,while its standardized DALY rate exhibits a downward trend.Notably,the disease burden is more pronounced in the female population compared with the male population.With the continued aging of the population,it can be predicted that both the standardized preva-lence and DALY rate of AMD will escalate from 2022 to 2035.This finding underscores the need for targeted interventions,particularly for elderly women.Meanwhile,it is necessary to enhance health education for the whole population and formu-late effective public health policies to alleviate the disease burden associated with AMD in China.
age-related macular degenerationglobal disease burdenprevalencedisability adjusted life yearseg-mented regression modelage-period-cohort model
万方数据
维普
