Objective To explore the prognostic factors of heart failure patients with reduced ejection fraction(HFrEF)complicated by coronary heart disease and to construct a corresponding prediction model.Methods The clinical data of 219 patients with HFrEF complicated with CHD admitted to hospital from January 2021 to June 2023 were retrospec-tively analyzed,and randomly divided into development set(146 cases)and test set(73 cases)according to 2:1 by computer generated random number method.The occurrence of major adverse cardiovascular events(MACE)was analyzed during fol-low-up.Patients with MACE and no MACE were included in the adverse outcome group and the good outcome group re-spectively.Compare the clinical data of development set and test set.The clinical data of poor outcome group and good outcome group were compared and developed.Logistic regression model was used to analyze the prognostic factors of HFrEF patients with CHD,and the regression equation and prognosis prediction model were established.The effectiveness of the model was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic curve(ROC).Results There was no significant difference in clinical data between the development set and the test set(P＞0.05).Logistic regression model analysis showed that hy-peruricemia,high CONUT score,high SYNTAX score,and poor out-of-hospital compliance were risk factors for poor prog-nosis in HFrEF patients with CHD(P＜0.05),and left ventricular ejection fraction(LVEF)was a protective factor(P＜0.05).A prognostic model for HFrEF patients with coronary heart disease was established based on the developed set Logistic regres-sion analysis structure.ROC curve showed that the area under the curve(AUC)of the predictive model for predicting poor prognosis in the development set was 0.923(95％CI0.867～0960),the sensitivity was 0938,and the specificity was 0.860.The predictive model predicted poor outcomes in the test set with an AUC of 0.904(95％CI0.812～0.960),sensitivity of 0.900,and specificity of 0.830.Conclusion Hyperuricemia,high CONUT score,high SYNTAX score,and poor out-of-hospital compli-ance are risk factors for poor prognosis in HFrEF patients with CHD,and LVEF is a protective factor.The prediction model built based on the above factors has good efficacy in predicting poor prognosis in HFrEF patients with CHD.
Coronary heart diseaseHeart failure patients with reduced ejection fractionPrognosisPrediction model
维普
万方数据
